Falling greenback brings mixed bag for key players
What might transpire if the greenback falls a further 25 per cent, so that Euro1 buys you $14?
Standard theory suggests that the leisure sector will get a boost due to the linked exchange rate with the dollar. Similarly, international travel for local residents will become more expensive, suggesting more will stay at home or take holidays in dollar zone destinations.
The Hong Kong Tourism Board, and local companies will find overseas promotion - particularly in the eurozone - taking a greater share of their budget. Tricky questions will be asked of marketing departments and media buyers. Should promotional road shows in Europe be shelved? Will promotions be switched to international media whose rate card is in US dollars?
Airlines should fare better since their principle variable cost - jet fuel - is priced in US dollars, a commodity far more influenced by matters impacting oil markets.
Equally, they will win from euro-priced tickets as the new fat cat global tourists flex their market muscle in cheap overseas dollar-denominated destinations.
route recovery
US data for September last year shows that air traffic between Hong Kong and the US has finally recovered from the shock of September 11. The 127,000 passengers in the month compared with 121,000 in September 2000 - and which fell to 89,000 in September 2001.
Travel over mainland/US routes also recovered last September, but many markets have not - Japan/US, for instance. Indeed, total air travel to/from the US was still down - the 8.9 million passengers counted last September were one million less than September 2000.
CAlling on hotel bookings
Navit (which provides content services for mobile phone operators in Japan) claims some hotels in Japan get 10 per cent of their rooms booked via mobile phones.
At a time when a 10 per cent share of booking made via the internet would be considered high by most hotels, this indicates that 'mbusiness' - mobile business - will be coming along fast after ebusiness.
There are about 80 million mobile phones in Japan, of which around 20 per cent are 3G.
smaller players advance
The mainland is encouraging development of an air system based around the Big Three. This would seemingly mean Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern.
However, Shanghai Airlines has been given rights to fly to Germany, and China Southwest to France (although the Beijing-Paris route might be rather awkward for this Chengdu-based airline).
And earlier, Hainan Airlines was awarded US rights.
Compiled by Murray Bailey, research director and editor, Travel Business Analyst
What a dollar collapse means
Bad for visitors to Euro and GBP destinations - most of Europe
Not good for visitors to other-currency destinations like Australia, India
Good for residents in other-currency markets like Australia, Europe, India, Britain
Not good for residents travelling from US$ markets like the mainland, Hong Kong, Malaysia, US
Budgets: bad for US$-based budgets spending in other-currency markets
Media promotion: Many media quote in US$, so switch from roadshows to media promotion
Good times for airlines based in eurozone; falling passenger numbers from US$ markets but cheaper costs for fuel, marketing, etc
Bad for Airbus (selling in US$, costs in Euro), good for Boeing
