The trio have not changed their forecasts - although this is partly because in these early post-tsunami months it is still difficult to predict how travellers will react.

However, some early figures suggest there will be a fall. Visitors arriving at Bangkok international airport in the first half of this month fell 9 per cent over the same period in 2003.

There is hope that some of the worldwide sympathy for the affected countries will translate into more visitors to the region.

But there is not enough travel information on restoration. Other deterrents include fears of health dangers and unfinished tourism facilities, with perhaps the biggest dread being that the remains of tsunami victims will wash up on beaches. Although these fears may be unfounded, if travellers are afraid of such things, they will not come. Also affecting the outcome will be how the tourism promotion offices respond to the tsunami crisis. Significant among them are Thailand's plans.

The country's tourism office is expected to be given a US$40 million budget to handle its tsunami crisis. Not all is earmarked for promotion.

For instance, the office plans a roadshow in Germany and Sweden in the next few weeks, but instead of promoting the country as a destination, this is more for Thailand to express condolences to citizens from those countries who died in the tsunami.

There is a possibility that the tourism destinations will recover quickly, and actually gain from growth in what could be called sympathy travel. As one observer said at the Langkawi conference: 'Banda Aceh is now the world's best-known city'.

cathay plays catch-up

Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific and Dragonair are both performing better than the closest competitors in their specific categories.

Over the latest comparable period, January-November, Cathay's 14 per cent growth in seats filled, compared with 2000, was easily the fastest of its four regional competitors. And Air Macau could manage only 16 per cent growth against Dragonair's 80 per cent.

And there are other trends.

Cathay is catching up with its two bigger rivals - Japan Airlines and Singapore Airlines. In 2000, Cathay was 20 per cent smaller than Singapore Air, while JAL was only 9 per cent smaller. By 2004, Cathay's faster growth had made it only 14 per cent smaller than Singapore, and JAL lost ground, to become 11 per cent smaller.

The other surprise is the fading of Thai Airways, which filled fewer seats in 2004 - not only when compared with Sars-damaged 2003, but also when compared with 2000.

So the airline cannot blame low-fare airlines, which started operating in some sizeable market presence only in the first quarter of last year. Also a surprise is slow growth at Air Macau - which, like Dragonair, focuses on routes to the mainland. It has an estimated 45 per cent growth over 2003, compared with nearly 60 per cent at Dragonair.

And when compared with 2000, Air Macau's 16 per cent compares with 80 per cent at Dragonair.

airports take off

Chek Lap Kok airport has been left standing as its two main competitors on the mainland - Beijing and Shanghai - experience rapid growth.

With comparable figures now available for the first 10 months, the two rivals increased their passenger throughput by around 50 per cent - despite also-rapid growth at Hong Kong.

But closer to home, Hong Kong was growing faster than its near-neighbours - Guangzhou, Macau, and Shenzhen - as well as being larger. But that might not last for much longer, as the new airport in Guangzhou ends limits on capacity at the old airport.

Compiled by Murray Bailey, research director and editor, Travel Business Analyst