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No boom from cultural district, say experts

Dennis Eng

Economists say project will give only modest boost to labour market, construction and property sectors

The West Kowloon cultural district is unlikely to give the construction and property sectors as much of a shot in the arm as Cyberport or Disneyland have, according to economists.

Even if the project were broken up and awarded to multiple developers, rather than a single one as the government proposes, there would not be much additional benefit, one expert said.

The government estimates that more than 5,500 construction jobs will be created by the arts hub project, along with positions for 500 professional and technical staff.

Once construction is complete, the shops and cultural facilities could employ 6,000 to 7,000 staff, an art consultant said.

The additional construction jobs would account for only about 0.15 per cent of the total labour force and would reduce unemployment by only one-fifth of a percentage point, JP Morgan economist Ben Simpfendorfer said.

'Much of the economic impact will be derived from the cost of labour and the profit of the project's developer, assuming that much of the materials will be imported and will add no value to the local economy,' he said.

The government had forecast that 4,000 jobs would be created during construction of Cyberport, and that once built about 12,000 people would be employed there in IT-related positions. Only about 2,000 people work at the Pokfulam site.

Some 6,000 people have been employed building Disneyland. When it opens in September, the theme park on Lantau will employ 18,000 people. If planned expansions of the park proceed, it could employ 35,000 people by 2025.

The government has projected an additional 10,000 people will be employed on land reclamation and other projects associated with the Disney park.

No details on job creation or economic impact have been provided by the three shortlisted bidders for the West Kowloon project.

Connie Bolland, a regional economist with Economist Corporate Network, said the job benefits might not be great. She noted that the specialised nature of many culture-related positions, such as those in museums and art galleries, would probably mean many overseas staff would be hired.

The government predicted that both Cyberport and Disneyland would boost Hong Kong's gross domestic product by 1 per cent.

Ms Bolland said the West Kowloon project could have a similar effect. 'At the time, the impact of Cyberport was more psychological. You can't underestimate that [impact] in times of a confidence crisis, like now, where the mood is kind of downbeat.'

She said more economic benefits would be derived by allowing more developers to take part in the project, rather than one or even two or three big companies.

'More developers would lead to competition, although the number should not be too large so as to make the project unmanageable,' she said.

'Alternatively, the lead developers could outsource some of the work to smaller companies.'

Meanwhile, Nicholas Brooke, chairman of Professional Property Services, has warned that the project's luxury residential property component would allow the winning developer to dominate this sector for a number of years.

'I am worried that West Kowloon will dominate the luxury residential market in the same way Cyberport did, in terms of pricing,' Mr Brooke said.

Of the three contenders, Sunny Development, a joint venture with Sino Land, Wharf (Holdings) and Chinese Estates Holdings, has the highest plot ratio, at 4.33, and is emphasising residential facilities.

World City Culture Park, a subsidiary of Henderson Land Development, has a plot ratio of 2.5, while Dynamic Star International, a Sun Hung Kai Properties and Cheung Kong (Holdings) consortium, is proposing a ratio of 3.28. The government has suggested a ratio of 1.81.

The plot ratio is the relationship between floor space and site area.

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