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Kim Jong-il willing to return to nuclear talks

Kim Jong-il staged a partial climbdown yesterday just 12 days after declaring that talks about his country's nuclear weapons programme were off the agenda.

But analysts said a new statement holding out the possibility that Pyongyang could return to the negotiating table should not be taken as a sign of weakness in the North Korean leader.

The latest twist in the nuclear weapons saga came after a weekend visit by a senior official from Beijing, the North's increasingly exasperated ally.

An official statement released yesterday quoted Mr Kim as saying: 'We will go to the negotiating table anytime if there are mature conditions for the six-party talks thanks to the concerted efforts of the parties concerned in the future.'

Some analysts saw the latest statement as a nod to Beijing, which has been hosting the six-party talks process and provides essential energy supplies to its impoverished neighbour.

Little optimism could be drawn that a resolution was nearer, because Mr Kim was still seeking concessions from Washington, which has taken a consistently hard line.

'He says North Korea does not want to overturn the negotiating table but wants it to be set up with new dishes palatable to its taste,' said Koh Yu-Hwan, of Dongguk University in Seoul.

'Kim Jong-il is stating to the world that North Korea does not want the confrontation to spin out of control and urging changes on the US side first.'

The other countries in the six-party talks are once again being forced to realise they have little leverage over Mr Kim.

As well as suspending participation in the multilateral talks, Pyongyang also declared that it had manufactured nuclear weapons. This was despite repeated warnings from US President George W. Bush that Washington would not tolerate either North Korea or Iran possessing a nuclear weapon.

Pyongyang's nuclear status cannot be proved, but the communist country has strengthened its hand by playing the US off against its Asian allies as well as taking advantage of the lack of a viable military options.

'Most US military analysts believe that while the US and South Korea could ultimately overthrow [Kim], it would be impossible to do so without sustaining catastrophic numbers of casualties,' said the International Crisis Group.

With both South Korea and Japan within range of North Korean missiles, Seoul and Tokyo have been at the forefront of demands for a diplomatic resolution to the standoff.

'We are living with a sick, rabid dog on our doorstep, but no one can say that out loud from a fear that the dog will bite,' said Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University in Seoul.

Time remains on Mr Kim's side. He can continue to develop his nuclear capability while for now there seems little prospect that his regime might fall due to a coup or a total economic collapse.

The food shortages of the late 1990s that left millions dead have eased and temporarily lifted the pressure on the regime, giving it more time to play its nuclear poker game.

The ultimate aim of the game is for Mr Kim to secure aid in return for concessions on his nuclear weapons, but he is unlikely to fully bargain them away, as Washington and its allies hope.

'There are reasons to doubt that North Korea will agree to a deal to get rid of is nuclear weapons,' says the International Crisis Group. 'But unless a serious effort is made to negotiate, we will never know.'

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