A game of musical chairs
It may have sounded like the wrong thing to say, but Home Affairs Secretary Patrick Ho Chi-ping was telling the truth when he commented that the leadership shake-up would bring about changes in the government's cabinet and work style.
This is despite the official hype about the importance of stability and unity in the post-Tung Chee-hwa administration. Commenting on Mr Tung's resignation, Premier Wen Jiabao called for harmony and mutual support for the development of the city.
His appeal was heeded when, accompanied by all members of the Executive Council (bar four unofficial members), acting Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen said on Saturday that all had agreed to stay on in their posts.
The show of unity, albeit perhaps only on the surface, came amid speculation about the emergence of cracks in the team. The word was that Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung was preparing to go, although he denied the report. Political experts also point to the special Exco meeting, held on Saturday night, as a sign of tension in the cabinet.
Four unofficial Exco members - Leung Chun-ying, Tsang Yok-sing, Cheng Yiu-tong and Andrew Liao Cheung-sing - were absent from the meeting ostensibly due to a clash with the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the National People's Congress meetings.
At this time of change, pending the election of the next chief executive - due to be held on July 10 - the preservation of unity and stability has been identified as the cabinet's first and foremost task.
Mr Tsang is widely tipped to be elected uncontested to the two-year term. Barring the remote possibility of a challenge from another cabinet member, the whole team will stay on until at least after the election.
Given the arrangement that the next chief executive will only serve the remainder of Mr Tung's term, it is plausible that the central government wants continuity and minimal changes to the team.
That said, Mr Tsang's succession will leave the post of chief secretary vacant. Although it has been reported that former high-ranking official Rafael Hui Si-yan will be appointed to the position, some seasoned analysts remain doubtful of such a move.
One line of thinking is that it would be out of character for Mr Tsang to appoint a former colleague to the key post.
One possible option is for Financial Secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen to be given the post of chief secretary, with the top finance portfolio taken up by Secretary for Commerce Industry and Technology, John Tsang Chun-wah - a close aide of Mr Tsang.
Aside from these top posts, experts believe that some ministers are likely to quit because of a clash with Mr Tsang's personality and style.
The possibility of change among unofficial Exco members will be even greater. Under the Basic Law, the chief executive is responsible for the appointment and removal of members. Some have said that they would quit to allow Hong Kong's new leader a free hand in forming his team.
Certainly, a reshuffle appears to be on the cards, and, more importantly, this looks set to trigger debate over sensitive issues fundamental to the ministerial, or accountability, system and the executive-led structure. These include the composition of Mr Tsang's team and the power mix and function of Exco.
Under the election timetable, Mr Tsang will have to file his candidacy by June. A clearer picture of the faces that will make up his team is likely to emerge soon.
Chris Yeung is the Post's editor-at-large
