One-horse race would leave HK the loser
The election of the next chief executive is beginning to look like a one-horse race. Chief Secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen emerged as a frontrunner even before Tung Chee-hwa's resignation was accepted last month. Since then, his position has strengthened. Most of the potential candidates have ruled themselves out of the running.
There are still three months to go before polling day, so there is still plenty of time for other contenders to emerge. But there is a strong - and unappealing - possibility that the election will be uncontested, just as it was in 2002 when Mr Tung secured a second term.
Mr Tsang is well placed for good reasons. He has the support both of Beijing and of the Hong Kong people. This should be a minimum requirement for the job. The veteran civil servant is not, however, everybody's favourite. It is well known that some members of the pro-Beijing camp are unhappy about the prospect of Mr Tsang becoming Hong Kong's next leader.
Their complaints have been expressed privately over the past few weeks. On Sunday, legislator Choy So-yuk put them into the public domain. Ms Choy used a radio broadcast to highlight the pro-Beijing camp's reservations about Mr Tsang, who loyally served Hong Kong's British rulers for three decades. She did not pull any punches. Some pro-Beijing figures had viewed Mr Tsang as 'arrogant and disrespectful of the patriotic values they cherished', Ms Choy said.
She deserves credit for having the courage to say publicly what others had expressed privately. But if there is opposition to Mr Tsang's election, why do we seem to be heading for a one-horse race?
The pro-Beijing camp is not short of supporters on the Election Committee. It would certainly be capable of securing the 100 nominations required to put a challenger forward.
But the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong does not appear to be keen to field a candidate. Liberal Party chief James Tien Pei-chun, who had canvassed the DAB's support, said only a week ago that he would not rule out any possibilities, including standing himself. But he added that he would have to gauge Mr Tsang's popularity in Hong Kong - and find out whether Beijing wanted more than one candidate to stand.
The first of those questions appears to have been answered in a university opinion poll published last week. Mr Tsang had overwhelming support - from more than 71 per cent of respondents who expressed a preference. This is an impressive showing. But popularity ratings can change dramatically during the course of an election campaign.
The second question is less easy to answer. Beijing has - wisely - been careful not to openly support Mr Tsang or any other potential candidate. But there is little doubt that the central government sees the acting chief executive as the best man for the job - at least for the next two years.
This should not prevent candidates from within the pro-Beijing camp from stepping forward. The election of Hong Kong's leader by an 800-member committee is a very limited form of democracy. But it does offer an opportunity to have a genuine contest - and it is one which should be taken.
This would mean that candidates would have to spell out their policies. And public opinion - gauged by pollsters - could have a role to play. It is a way in which the election could be made a little more representative. It would also have the benefit of providing the winner with some kind of a mandate. Mr Tsang would probably win anyway. Even if the poll was by universal suffrage, he would be the hot favourite.
An uncontested election would deprive Hong Kong of the limited level of public participation permitted under the existing system. Mr Tsang is undoubtedly the frontrunner. But he does not have to be the only runner. Hong Kong could be the loser from a one-horse race.
