Incontestably popular choice
Whether Tung Chee-hwa's replacement as chief executive is elected for two years or five is not a vital issue. Politically, either term has its pros and cons to both the central government and the democrats, and it is neither a matter of principle, nor a black-and-white issue. Everybody knows that if Beijing were to favour a five-year term, the democrats would still protest, because this is the thing that gives their existence any meaning.
As such, nobody will take the democrats' protest too seriously, even if it is cloaked in the facade of legality. I am no legal expert, but from common-sense judgment, again both sides have their valid arguments.
Even by a big stretch of the imagination, few people would agree that if we do proceed with a two-year term - with or without a Basic Law interpretation by the National People's Congress Standing Committee - then our rule of law will be dead.
With such lively debates and lawsuits going on, day in and day out, we all know that freedom, democracy and the rule of law are alive and well in Hong Kong, and they are in better shape than during the British colonial era.
From opinion polls, it is clear that people are already fed up with all this hair-splitting squabbling, and want to get on with their lives. Let us have a proper election and get someone to take charge for the next two years, and if he does a fine job, then he should be elected for another five years.
As long as he produces results, nobody here really cares. To most Chinese, democracy is, at best, a questionable means to achieve good and lasting governance, because if the person elected does not perform to our satisfaction, we have the opportunity to toss him out of office at the next election. Democracy is never an ultimate, core value. We are too clever and pragmatic to be fooled by that kind of pretence.
No matter how you look at it, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen is the person most likely to be chief executive until June 30, 2007. Again, whether he has an opponent, or like Mr Tung in the last election, is elected unchallenged, is not a vital issue. I do not think Mr Tsang will be as stupid and arrogant as Mr Tung to the point of not even bothering to present his platform or do the minimum amount of lobbying.
Instead, I expect the much more political Mr Tsang to use this campaign as a dress rehearsal for the 2007 election, to make sure that he is way ahead of his potential competitors.
He will show the world that he has been elected because he is by far the most popular political figure in town. If this is indeed the case, as demonstrated time and again by various opinion polls, what more can the democrats say?
Moreover, I am sure that, for the coming two years, Mr Tsang will show both the Hong Kong public and the leaders in Beijing that his administration will be different from that of Mr Tung, that it will be responsive to the needs and aspirations of the people, and will act decisively to deal with any challenges.
With a rising property market already assured due to an anticipated acute short supply, and a little help from the central government, the economy will keep on thriving, and the people of Hong Kong will be happier than ever.
Under the current political environment, where nobody invests long-term in politics, and everyone wants to just jump in and win, or better still, win with a little push from behind, I can safely predict that, even for the 2007 election, there will be but one candidate - the highly popular Mr Tsang. And why not?
Lau Nai-keung is a Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference delegate
