Do we know the real man?
The people of Hong Kong think they know chief-executive-in-waiting Donald Tsang Yam-kuen. We believe we know him because we have seen him in public over the years. He has performed many roles, rising to financial secretary, then chief secretary. Both posts were significant enough that the public assumed he was not only taking orders from above but had opportunities to put his own imprint on policy preferences.
In the administration under Tung Chee-hwa, Mr Tsang was given a range of special duties as chief secretary. The most high-profile, with the greatest potential long-term impact on Hong Kong, were heading the population taskforce, overseeing the infamous West Kowloon cultural development project, and leading the taskforce on constitutional development.
By examining these duties, it is possible to get a glimpse of Mr Tsang's preferences, capacity and ability.
The 2003 report that the population taskforce put out was less than impressive. Its scope was far too narrow. Changing demographics affect all policy areas, but many were not mentioned. Moreover, it is unclear whether the government accepts what the figures are telling them as a whole - that Hong Kong's population is declining. And yet, the public finance preference is still to build hardware rather than to shift spending to substantially improve education, public health-care and environmental conditions so that the overall quality of life can be enhanced.
More recently, Mr Tsang's comments that Hong Kong families should have three children to stem our declining fertility rate showed more than just poor judgment. Fertility rates depend on people's desire to have children, social norms and economic conditions. The size of homes, day-care availability, flexible working conditions for parents, affordable home help and education are all factors, but none were discussed in the report.
As for West Kowloon, it was never clear whose idea it was in the first place, especially the giant canopy concept and single-developer model. According to news reports, Mr Tsang told Election Committee members, in his efforts to secure their support, that he was prepared to drop the unpopular single-developer approach but not the canopy. He is on record as saying that the reason for the enormous roof was to limit the height of the project and that he believed the structure would be a great icon for the city. Surely, these are insufficient reasons to push ahead with what seems to be an ill-conceived project. Wouldn't it be better to call for a rethink?
Regarding constitutional reform, the taskforce has so far published four reports. Taken together, their aim was to emphasise the power that the central authorities have in determining the timing and direction of Hong Kong's political reform. It is notable that none of the reports provided a substantive analysis of the problems related to our current political system, without which it is hard to come up with a better model.
Mr Tsang will, in fact, preside over the next report, due out this autumn, to outline the government's preferred model for the 2007 chief executive and 2008 Legislative Council elections. Soon, we will see what the Tsang administration will be like. Despite Mr Tsang's long tenure in high office, only 9 per cent of respondents in a recent survey thought that they knew his policy platform; 29 per cent said that they had a 'half-half' idea; but 34 per cent were unsure.
With only a two-year term, Mr Tsang may see his priorities as getting on with existing projects and preparing himself for the next election. This is not good enough, as there are many policy gaps and it is unclear whether he is willing to deal with them.
Christine Loh Kung-wai is chairwoman of the Society for Protection of the Harbour and runs the think-tank Civic Exchange
