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The trouble with honeymoons

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Like the marital kind, political honeymoons are long or short depending on when the relationship peaks. Pleasures of the flesh play a big part in the duration of marital honeymoons. Political ones, more often than not, depend on how long the politician in question can fool the people.

Donald Tsang Yam-kuen is no fool, or he would not be where he is. But the question is whether he is foolish enough to believe his honeymoon with the people will last forever.

It began when he became Beijing's choice for leader after the departure of Tung Chee-hwa, who was foolish enough to think love of one's country - riding on the back of Hong Kong's return to China - was enough to win the goodwill of the people.

He promised much but delivered little, and his dull repetition of the need for patriotism made many wonder if he really believed in his own message, or was simply pleasing his bosses in Beijing.

Simplicy and single messages work fine for leaders like US President George W. Bush, whose patriotism mantra fuels his presidency. But Mr Tung had neither the communications skills nor the ideology-driven aides to either sell his message or fool the people into believing it. Political promises - like Mr Tung's many pledges of a better tomorrow - are rarely if ever kept. Still, they are often believed, with the cut-off date determined by how patient the people are.

Except for style of leadership, Mr Tsang has more or less hijacked Mr Tung's promises. He says he will keep them, but when the tycoons push their own interests at the expense of the masses - as they often did during Mr Tung's time - will he expose them in public? And when his Beijing bosses pull the strings on political reforms, will he dare tell them he is not their puppet?

Having been shocked and awed by the march of half a million, Beijing has retreated on most fronts, but is stubbornly holding the line on democratic reforms. Conventional wisdom says on this issue we must balance Hong Kong's interests with those of Beijing.

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