A new Central Asian turf war?
We may be witnessing the beginnings of a new turf war in Central Asia. China and Russia are leading the four other members of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) - Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan - in telling the United States to keep away from their backyard.
The SCO summit's warning last week against 'monopolising or dominating international affairs' suggests that it is keeping a wary eye on what it suspects is the long-term American agenda in eastern Asia. This was also the message of the '21st century international order' declaration that President Hu Jintao and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, signed recently in Moscow.
But while Russia and China are seeking to protect their spheres of influence, smaller SCO members are more concerned about western governments and liberal organisations peering too closely into their internal affairs. They resented Human Rights Watch's call on the SCO to 'hold member state Uzbekistan to account for the violence committed by government forces in Andijan'.
Not that the US need worry too much just yet. There was bound to be some tough talking at the SCO's first meeting since the Kyrgyz leader, Askar Akayev, was ousted in March, and since the May military crackdown in Uzbekistan.
The call for deadlines to dismantle the American military bases - set up in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan as part of the effort to topple Afghanistan's Taleban regime - does not quite amount to an ultimatum. It is not even addressed specifically to the US. Further, the SCO expressed its present and future support for 'the international coalition, which is carrying out an anti-terror campaign in Afghanistan'.
These optimistic phrases signify that the SCO will not raise serious objections if US strategy is confined to suppressing residual Taleban elements. But the declaration's further claim that US military bases have outlived their usefulness - because 'the active phase of the military anti-terrorist operation' in Afghanistan is coming to an end - suggests deeper worries.
Problems arise because of the Bush administration's strategic thinking. The so-called 'Rumsfeld doctrine' emphasises the need for forward deployment of small but highly mobile expeditionary or rapid reaction forces, rather than large conventional bases with tens of thousands of troops. The Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan is meant to serve as a launch pad for troops to take off at a moment's notice for nearby trouble spots.
When fully completed, it will house more than 3,000 troops. Americans also now predominantly staff the Karshi-Khanabad airfield in southeastern Uzbekistan. The SCO's concern is that, in the event of a larger military engagement in eastern Asia, these bases would be midway halts for forces and equipment airlifted from America.
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's call for an end to 'interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states' follows complaints by leaders such as Uzbek President Islam Karimov, who accuses the west of complicity in the uprisings in three former Soviet republics - Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan - in the past two years.
The situation cannot be judged in terms of right and wrong. But it should prompt the US to seek strategies that do not offend Central Asian sensitivities. History has shown time and again that American interests are best protected by co-operation - not confrontation - with local nationalisms.
Sunanda Kisor Datta-Ray is a former editor of The Statesman in India
