China on course to cruise past target for power output
Equipment shortage will not stop 2010 goal being met years early, group says
China may reach its 2010 electricity generation capacity target three years early despite the failure of equipment makers to meet demand in the first half of this year, according to a semi-governmental power industry association.
Wang Yonggan, secretary-general of China Electricity Council, said yesterday that about 70 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity would be added annually this year, next year and in 2007.
That would boost national capacity to 650 GW by the end of 2007, the 2010 target set by the government in 2000. China had nationwide generation capacity of 440 GW at the end of last year
As the council forecast includes only projects that have been approved by the central government, actual capacity will depend on the success of campaigns to halt the proliferation of unauthorised power projects. Many local government officials turn a blind eye to such projects as they stimulate economic growth and create jobs.
The council represents all key power firms and is administered by the State Electricity Regulatory Commission.
Due to capacity constraints at equipment suppliers and slow progress in plant construction, only 20.06 GW of capacity came on stream in the first half, well short of the 30 GW originally expected.
'The main reason is that the equipment makers were unable to deliver on time,' Mr Wang said. 'There is a backlog of orders, but we still think meeting the annual 70 GW target for this year to 2007 should not be a problem.'
Tomorrow, Zhang Guobao, vice-minister of the National Development and Reform Commission - the top industry policy planner - is expected to unveil power industry growth plans for for next year to 2010.
To prevent a supply glut, the government late last year ordered unauthorised power projects involving more than 100 GW of capacity to stop construction pending the outcome of feasibility studies and environmental impact assessments.
A spokesman from Harbin Power Equipment said the Hong Kong-listed firm had expanded its production capacity by 10 to 15 per cent so far this year, but added that it would not increase capacity further in the next two years.
'We plan to keep our [annual] generator production capacity at 15,000 MW and rely a lot on outsourcing. If we keep adding facilities and there is suddenly a downturn, what can we do with the excess?' the spokesman said.
The company raised production capacity threefold in the past three years to help meet China's avaricious demand for power.
The council forecasts that China's annual power demand growth will slow gradually to 9 per cent in 2007 from 14.9 per cent last year.
Still, Nick Ornstien, general manager at US energy information publisher PennWell, said China's power demand growth was projected to average 7 per cent in the next decade, outstripping the worldwide figure of 3 per cent.
About US$1.2 trillion is expected to be invested in the next 15 years to raise the nation's generation capacity by 550 GW, he said, adding that 32 per cent of global power equipment orders would come from China between 2003 and 2008.
