Odds favour Blues
Gunners have edge recently, but the force is with Mourinho's men
Most pundits reckon the Premiership is a one-horse race and it will certainly look that way if Chelsea can turn the tide of history and defeat Arsenal in tomorrow night's blockbuster at Stamford Bridge.
It is almost 10 years since Chelsea last defeated Arsenal in the Premiership - a run stretching back 19 games - despite the fact that the two sides have been very closely matched during the past decade. Nine of those 19 games have been draws and only two of Arsenal's wins have been by more than a single goal, so the Gunners' supremacy has hardly been overwhelming. There have been Chelsea wins along the way too - 2-1 at Highbury in the Champions League two seasons ago and, perhaps most significantly, by the same score in the Community Shield this month.
That made it three games without defeat for Jose Mourinho against Arsenal and he has a crucial weapon in his bid for a quick follow-up win: aerial supremacy. Chelsea's long-ball tactics in the Community Shield played to Didier Drogba's strengths and, with the additional threat posed by John Terry at set pieces, the Arsenal defence looks set for another bombardment. Sol Campbell's continued absence is a big blow for Arsenal because Kolo Toure and Philippe Senderos are uncomfortable with the high ball. Admittedly they coped all right in last season's goalless draw at Stamford Bridge, but that result suited Chelsea as it all but wrapped up the title. They can be expected to hit the Arsenal defence much harder this time.
Arsenal, by their standards, were negative in that game, mainly because Thierry Henry was absent. It would be no surprise if Arsene Wenger played for a draw again, however, and that makes Arsenal hard to fancy. In any case, Chelsea's win odds are perfectly fair.
Only one of Chelsea's nine home games against top-half teams last season featured more than two goals, with four ending 1-0 to the champions and three 0-0, so low goals looks the most obvious bet.
Punters were warned here last week not to underestimate the three promoted clubs, but the trio look worth opposing this weekend on their first road trips. West Ham and Wigan performed admirably last weekend, but their away form is unproven and they will find it tough at Newcastle and Charlton respectively. Admittedly Newcastle need to find the missing goals, but Charlton don't require any improvement on last season's home form (just two defeats against teams outside the top six) to dispose of Wigan (HKJC match no. SAT 17).
Sunderland looked well out of their depth in their 3-1 home defeat by Charlton and they will need dramatic improvement to hold Liverpool, who have won seven out of 10 at home to bottom-half teams (a category Sunderland must fall into) in each of the past two seasons. For those looking to improve the odds, the main options are a bet on low goals or Liverpool on the handicap.
The latter comes out slightly better in my book.
Manchester United, not surprisingly, rate as the home banker in tonight's early kick-off against Aston Villa. The same handicap/HiLo dilemma applies as with Liverpool, with the handicap getting the nod now that Ruud Van Nistelrooy is back in scoring form.
The highest rated away team (marginally better than Arsenal) are Manchester City, who are worth considering on the handicap at Birmingham. Their low win rate on the road is off-putting, along with the fact that Birmingham could improve now that they have strengthened their attack. Preference is for Bolton at home to Everton, whose away form slipped badly at the end of last season.
Best homes: Manchester United, Liverpool, Newcastle, Charlton, Bolton. Best aways: Manchester City.
High goals: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Liverpool v Sunderland. Low goals: Chelsea v Arsenal.
