One step closer to going alone
NO one ever expected the negotiations to go on so long when they first began last spring. Back then, all the talk was of how the electoral legislation had to be through the Legislative Council before the summer recess, come what may. China would not be allowed to use the talks as a stalling process, it was stressed.
Yet, in the event, that is precisely what has happened. More than 160 hours of talks have achieved little of substance, other than growing frustration over the failure to agree on even the most basic issues. Whatever benefits in other areas were hoped for when the talks began have yet to materialise. There is still no agreement on financing the new airport or Container Terminal Nine while the Joint Liaison Group continues to make snail-like progress.
Seven months after negotiations first began, what should have been clear long ago, has become glaringly so: both sides are so entrenched in their positions that an agreement is impossible without major concessions from either side. However this appears unlikely unless both sides can agree to more than just the lowering of the voting age to 18.
As wide apart as Britain and China are, neither will want to call off the talks for fear of being accused of bad faith by the other side. As a result, both sides have been quick to point accusatory fingers at the other in laying the ground for an inevitable breakdown. China has accused Britain of blocking agreement on a first-stage accord by insisting on including the voting system for the Legislative Council elections. Britain, in turn, has charged Beijing with backing down on concessions it made during the 15th round of discussions.
What can be agreed is that, after round 17, time is running out for the Hong Kong administration to put its constitutional arrangements in place.
With the lowering of voting age the only concession made by Beijing, and this only after yesterday's talks, it is little wonder the Governor Chris Patten is tempted to walk away from the negotiations and table his reform bill before the Legislative Council. However, before he does, he will need to take stock of whether more rounds of talks might produce significant concessions.
Putting a partial bill containing only the so-called first-stage issues - such as the voting age and system, for the 1994 and 1995 polls, and the abolition of appointed seats - to Legco will give Mr Patten the opportunity to test China's sincerity. By tabling such a bill, the door would be left open for further discussions on the more substantive issues. Of course, putting the matter before Legco is bound to upset China. However, after a year of being the object of Beijing's wrath, Mr Patten is probably immune to its threats.
Beijing showed last winter the extent to which it is prepared to go in trying to bully Hong Kong into line and, if Mr Patten does decide to go it alone, more such threats can be expected in the coming weeks.
Of course, neither side wants the talks to break down. However, recent opinion polls have shown the public is just as frustrated as Mr Patten over the lack of progress in the talks.
It should also be remembered that these were negotiations which many believed were never going to succeed at the outset. For some the price demanded by Beijing in return for a through train was too high to pay.
However, time and patience are running out. Executive Councillors and British Ministers will be right, if this week they approve the tabling of a partial electoral bill to Legco. And they should be careful not to be misled by any last-minute diplomatic messages from Beijing - as some believe they were last spring - appearing to offer concessions that may or may not actually exist.
In the absence of real and substantive movement from the Chinese side over the next few days, the Governor will be left with no other option except to go to Legco. As Mr Patten said even before the talks began last spring, the final decision on his political reforms rests with Legco. After seven months of seemingly fruitless talks, it is time they had their say on the issue.
