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Hang Lung extends losses on downgrades

Hang Lung Properties fell for the second straight day yesterday despite announcing an interim result that beat market forecasts thanks to a gain from the revaluation of investment properties.

Analysts, however, believe the result was disappointing without the one-off gain.

The Hong Kong developer lost 3.84 per cent on Tuesday after reporting its result during lunch break and dropped a further 0.72 per cent yesterday to close at $13.65.

Merrill Lynch research analyst Clifford Lam downgraded the counter to 'neutral' from 'buy' and cut his profit forecast by 47 per cent and 48 per cent for the fiscal years 2006 and 2007 respectively, to $3.25 billion and $3.67 billion.

'While the results just announced were solid, the share price has outperformed its peers by more than 18 per cent this year to date and now it is trading only at an 8 per cent discount to our net asset value estimate of $14.90 a share,' he wrote in a report.

Given the slightly demanding valuation, plus the disappointment of a flat dividend and the downgrading of its projected earnings, the analyst believes the share price would take a breather.

Morgan Stanley analyst Kenny Tse cut earnings per share forecasts for fiscal 2006-08 by 28 per cent and 38 per cent on the back of more conservative assumptions on the rate of property sales and rental growth in the company's Hong Kong portfolio, as well as higher finance expenses.

But Macquarie analyst Eva Lee said in a note: 'The current valuation has not fully discounted either the sharp rental reversions in China or the new investments yet to be included under the portfolio.' She raised the valuation by 4 per cent to $18.80 on the strength of the developer's China portfolio. Macquarie maintained its 'outperform' rating with a target price of $15.10.

Citigroup analyst Tony Tsang shared the bullish outlook, raising the property counter's target price to $15.50 on the stronger than expected performance of its China property portfolio, according to the bank's daily note.

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