Optimistic outlook for the economy this year
Robust private consumption, fuelled by active job and property markets, is expected to keep Hong Kong's export-driven economic growth at a respectable 6 per cent this year, Standard Chartered Bank economist Tai Hui said.
The forecast is more optimistic than the official estimate of between 4 per cent and 5 per cent of real growth but still below last year's 7.3 per cent.
In a report yesterday, Mr Hui enthused that Hong Kong should maintain its position as the fastest growing economy in East Asia, outside the mainland, after two straight years.
'Sustained job market improvement should reinforce consumer confidence, especially when interest rates peak and the property market turns more active later this year,' he said.
'Of course, event risk, such as avian flu, should be taken into account but the robust fundamentals should ensure a speedy recovery once the impact is over.'
Mr Hui pointed to 2006 as 'one of the best years for local consumers in the post-handover period'. Specifically, he cited steady improvement for jobseekers with the unemployment rate falling from the Sars-induced peak of 8.6 per cent in July 2003 to the current 5.2 per cent.
Mr Hui is also upbeat about the local property market, which went quiet starting in the second half of last year after the cycle of interest rate rises began to dampen homebuyers' enthusiasm.
