Surprises loom as firm weighs estimates according to accuracy of past forecasts
The Hong Kong stock market will see some surprises - both pleasant and negative - in the coming month, if some top-rated analysts' out-of-the-ordinary calls come true.
According to research firm Starmine's estimates, China's largest cement maker, Anhui Conch Cement, may deliver earnings per share of 32 fen for last year when it announces its results on April 18.
San Francisco-based Starmine compiled the estimates by giving top-ranking analysts' predictions - based on their track records on the specific stock - higher weightings in its consensus estimate.
The analysts are also given ratings, with 'five-star' meaning they rank among the top 10 per cent of analysts tracked by Starmine, based on a set of performance criteria, while 'four-star' refers to the next best 23 per cent. The rankings and ratings are based on two-year track records.
Other consensus numbers compilers such as Thomson First Call use a typical average estimate, giving every analyst an equal weighting regardless of their track record of estimate accuracy.