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Suffering the consequences

Five months after the rejection of Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's political reform package by the pan-democratic camp in the Legislative Council, evidence is emerging that public support for the reform proposals is now even stronger than before.

Immediately before the vote on December 21, surveys put support for the package at 39 per cent, with 37 per cent opposed to it.

However, now that the proposal has been defeated, it appears that supporters of the reforms outnumber those who oppose them by a two-to-one margin.

Michael DeGolyer, director of the Hong Kong Transition Project, which conducted two surveys in March, says that now public opinion is so much clearer, the proposals should be resubmitted to the legislature for another vote.

That is an interesting idea. Perhaps the officials in the Constitutional Affairs Bureau can study the issue and see if it can be done.

It is unlikely that the government would take such extraordinary action without a clear change of heart from the democrats. It would not be necessary for all 24 democrats who voted against the package to change their position. Only five or six more votes would be enough to ensure a two-thirds majority.

The survey findings seem quite clear. Asked if they would support or oppose Legco to approve the constitutional reform package if given another chance to vote on it, 48 per cent of the respondents said they would support it, while only 22 per cent were opposed.

This means that if the government does resubmit the package to Legco, public support for its passage would be overwhelming, and it would be difficult for the democrats to again turn down the reforms.

The survey also shows that the defeat of the reforms by the democratic legislators has resulted in a drop in public support for them.

According to the findings, the public blames the pan-democratic camp (50 per cent), the Democratic Party (43 per cent) and the Article 45 legislators (42 per cent), who have since formed the Civic Party, for blocking the political reforms.

Surprisingly, perhaps, the chief executive is given a relatively small portion of the blame (34 per cent).

The public was dissatisfied with the Democratic Party even before the December vote on the political package.

A November survey on satisfaction with political parties showed the Democrats ranked at the bottom, with a 59 per cent dissatisfaction rating, even worse than the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong's rating of 58 per cent.

But satisfaction with the Democratic Party fell even further after the defeat of the reform package.

While all the pro-democracy parties suffered, the Democrats were hit the hardest.

The March survey showed 68 per cent dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, while the DAB's rating dropped from 58 per cent to 55 per cent. Discontent with the Article 45 legislators rose from 27 per cent before the vote, to 31 per cent afterwards.

Put simply, the pan-democratic camp failed to do what was in the public's best interests. Members frustrated the people's desire for reform and voted to reject an admittedly imperfect package but one that was, on balance, a step forward given the limitations imposed by Beijing in 2004.

Members of the democratic camp should reflect upon the consequences of their actions, which were predictable. They have blocked any progress for political reform, wasting precious years. And they have acted against the wishes of the people, whom they claim to represent.

Unless they do something to salvage their reputation in the eyes of the public, they are likely to experience the consequences during the next Legislative Council election two years from now.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator

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