Barcelona look better of two stylish clubs
It was first blood to Spain when Sevilla beat Middlesbrough in this week's Uefa Cup final, and Barcelona can double the pain for English clubs with victory over Arsenal in Wednesday's Champions League final.
This is the final most people wanted to see, pitting two stylish clubs and a host of top-class players against each other. Barcelona have Ronaldinho and Samuel Eto'o; Arsenal have Thierry Henry and Cesc Fabregas. Extra spice is added by speculation that this will be Henry's last game for Arsenal before he moves to Barcelona.
It will be billed in many quarters as the irresistible force of Barcelona's attack against the immovable object that is Arsenal's defence, but that is a simplistic view.
For a start, Barcelona's defence is much underrated - only Chelsea have scored against them in the knockout rounds of the Champions League, and overall they have kept a clean sheet in eight of their 12 games in this season's competition. Barca also have the best defence in the Primera Liga, with the lowest goals conceded and the highest number of clean sheets. Barcelona's attack undoubtedly is the best in Europe when it is firing on all cylinders, but it has something to prove on current form. In the first half of the season Barcelona scored 63 goals in 25 La Liga and Champions League games (at an average of 2.52 goals per game), but over the past four months they have found the net 36 times in 23 games in those competitions (at a rate of 1.57 goals per game - almost a goal lower than their earlier average).
Partly that has to do with the higher standard of opposition in the knockout rounds of the Champions League, but it does raise a slight question mark against the favourites.
It will raise hopes in the Arsenal camp too, especially with their defence on a Champions League record run of 10 consecutive clean sheets. That sequence started against some weak teams at the group stage, but it has continued impressively against Real Madrid, Juventus and Villarreal in the knockout rounds.
Arsenal have ridden their luck at times, however, and they will need to do more to triumph against Barcelona. The Gunners have scored in only three of their six knockout ties, for a total of just four goals, and Arsene Wenger would be playing with fire if he opted to sit back against Barcelona.
The Spanish champions have been held scoreless in just six of their 48 La Liga and Champions League games this season, and only one of those (away to Valencia, Spain's second-best team, ended in defeat). Of the five goalless draws, the result suited Barcelona more than their opponents on three occasions.
Barcelona will offer space for Henry and Fabregas to exploit beyond the halfway line, and they must take advantage if Arsenal are to win inside 90 minutes.
Some Henry magic could turn the match in Arsenal's favour, but Barcelona have more match-winners and are better in most departments. Barca deserve to be European champions for their outstanding play over the past 21/2 years, and they look fair odds to take the crown.
Recommended bet: Barcelona win.
thousand-dollar wager: $200 handicap on Bordeaux, Deportivo, St Etienne, Hertha Berlin and Werder Bremen
