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Honest look at the past is key to the future

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SCMP Reporter

Remembering the past is a political exercise on the mainland, where the Communist Party continues to censor all attempts at interpreting history. Beijing's official silence on the 40th anniversary of the Cultural Revolution is worrying enough. It is all the more ominous because unofficial efforts to mark this dark moment in Chinese history are being suppressed.

The outbreak of the Cultural Revolution in 1966 epitomised what can go wrong in a one-party state. The lack of institutional democracy and civil society meant that Mao Zedong was able to hijack the Communist Party and perpetrate a series of crimes that left few families untouched.

Forty years on, the chances of the country being gripped by a similar political campaign are low. No party elder holds god-like status anymore. There is more internal democracy within the Communist Party, and rival power centres are keeping one another's ambitions at bay. The party still holds a tight rein in the political sphere, but has relaxed its control over economic and social life.

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After years of living in relative freedom and growing prosperity, the younger generation is less likely to be whipped up by a revolutionary frenzy than their parents, who were engulfed by the Cultural Revolution when they were young.

Although another Cultural Revolution remains unlikely, the lack of effective political checks coupled with rising domestic tensions means that China must remain vigilant.

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There is some truth to the jibe that economists don't see how China can fail and political scientists don't see how it can succeed. Many analysts worry that the mainland has become a social powder keg ready to explode. Despite rapid economic growth, the nation is marked by widening gaps between the rich and the poor.

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