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An odd fixation on China

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Why you can trust SCMP
Philip Bowring

It is hard to believe that much good has come from the mission that US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has just led to Beijing. Sitting in Hong Kong, one may miss benefits seen in Washington. Just possibly, the sight of six Cabinet secretaries and the Federal Reserve chairman being assertive with China may keep at bay the protectionist sentiments, boosted by the results of last month's election, in the US Congress.

But, viewed from here, the event looks to have reinforced prejudices on both sides. The US is more than ever convinced that China is the main source of its trade imbalance. And Beijing is ever-more determined not to be seen to succumb to US pressure on currency and other economic issues, even if that might actually be in its interest.

The Chinese may have privately taken away the message that they must do more to appease US complaints, whether on the currency or trade issues such as intellectual property. If that helps slow the protectionist push, some benefits may result.

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But one could equally well argue that, by sending such a high-powered delegation, the US has raised unrealistic expectations of what China can be persuaded to do - and the impact that will have on the trade imbalance.

The size and weight of the delegation suggests an obsession with China that displays a dangerous ignorance in Washington of the dynamics of global trade and investment. China is only one part of a system that reflects the growing dominance of East Asian economies in global manufacturing.

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Mr Paulson's obsession with China seems to stem from his many visits there drumming up business for Goldman Sachs. But the two-dimensional view that investment bankers have of the world is ill-suited to the complexity of international trade and payments.

The headline US trade deficit may be bigger with China than with any other partner. But it is only part of a mammoth East Asian surplus, and cannot realistically be separated from the surpluses of Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. They are the principle investors in China's exporting industries, and the suppliers of the more sophisticated components. Nor can it be separated from the profits of US middlemen and retail chains.

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