What will Hong Kong look like in 2047? Come back and ask me in 40 years ...

The e-mail command popped up on screen. 'Tell us,' said the boss, 'what the future is likely to hold for Hong Kong in 2047, and make it forward-looking, will you? We don't want just a recap of past events.'

So I decided to get it deliberately wrong and look back to 1947 instead. Well, why not? The boss needs someone to yell at, doesn't he?

But there is a reason for starting in 1947. I want to imagine what I would say if I had been employed by this newspaper in 1947 and asked to make a forecast of what Hong Kong would be like in, for argument's sake, 1977.

I think I would have looked around me and come to the conclusion that there really wasn't much future for the place. It was poor, people had deserted it throughout the war and even the Royal Navy hadn't much use for it any longer. Perhaps there was still some potential for China trade, but otherwise agriculture and fishing would have to do. Hong Kong and the Falklands - backwaters of the Empire, both.

How wrong can you get?

Now let's shift forwards to 1977 and I shall imagine myself with the same assignment. What will Hong Kong look like in 2007? I look around me and say, 'Well, I got it wrong last time, but it's pretty obvious where we're heading this time.'