Things in Taiwan are looking up. From having been the second worst performer among Asian stock markets for the past two years, in the past two months the Taiex has outperformed every market except South Korea.
The gain has been steady rather than explosive and, given the mostly bullish conditions everywhere in recent times, they have gone largely un-remarked. But they reflect a change in domestic sentiment which in turn reflects a growing belief that next year will be a constructive one in cross-strait relations.
There has long been a fear that the coincidence of presidential elections in Taiwan in early 2008 with the build-up towards the Beijing Olympics could create conditions for rash measures by Taipei, such as a new constitution emphasising its separate status, to which Beijing would be likely to respond harshly.
But the opposite seems likely to be the case. President Hu Jintao continues to signal that he wants to entice the Taiwanese with kind words and business opportunities, rather than strengthen their resolve with threats. Beijing has also been relatively mild in response to president Chen Shui-bian's efforts to play up Taiwan identity, confident perhaps that Mr Chen's standing with the public is now very low on account not of his cross-strait stance, but allegations of corruption which in practice have much reduced his executive authority.
The Democratic Progressive Party candidate for president, Frank Hsieh Chang-ting, a former mayor of Kaohsiung, is seen as more pragmatic and has stated that he is in favour of allowing mainland tourism and reducing restrictions on cross-strait investment flows, which would more likely bring money into Taiwan than encourage more outflow.
Indeed, direct links could bring Taiwan people, as well as money, back from the mainland so that they could enjoy Taiwan's order and clean air, while profiting from mainland labour and markets.