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Generation vex

Led by China, countries in East and South Asia are lining up to expand or introduce nuclear power. All say they need it to meet surging demand for electricity to run their growing economies.

However, the enlargement of nuclear generating capacity being planned by so many Asian countries, including some with weak management and control systems, is raising fears about catastrophic accidents and the spread of nuclear weapons in the region, just as hopes are being buoyed that North Korea will dismantle its nuclear arms programme.

Asia is leading the world in the quest for atomic power. In East and South Asia, there are at least 110 nuclear reactors operating, about a quarter of the world's total. They generate electricity on the mainland, in India, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea and Taiwan. Another 18 are under construction and a further 110 planned.

In addition, there are 54 nuclear research reactors operating in East and South Asia, with two more being built. The only significant Asia Pacific economies without any kind of research reactor are New Zealand and Singapore.

Most of the new power reactors will be in states that already have experience in operating them.

South Korea meets 45 per cent of its electricity needs from nuclear plants and plans to raise this ratio to 60 per cent by 2035. Japan generates almost 30 per cent of its electricity from nuclear power and wants to double this by 2050. However, despite Japan's advanced scientific and technological base, some of its reactors have a troubling history of accidents.

The biggest expansion will be in China and India. In both countries, nuclear power accounts for less than 4 per cent of electricity output. However, China has five power reactors under construction and another 63 planned or proposed. India has eight being built and 24 on the drawing boards.

As concerns grow in Asia about energy security, pollution and global warming, modern nuclear reactors appear to offer an attractive alternative or supplement to coal, oil and natural gas.

Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Mongolia are among the lengthening list of Asian candidates for big nuclear reactors to start producing electricity in the next decade or so. Myanmar recently announced that it would build a research reactor with Russian assistance.

Advocates of nuclear power say that unlike plants that run on coal and other fossil fuels, fission reactors release very little carbon dioxide or other greenhouse emissions blamed for warming the planet.

They also say that a new generation of nuclear plants will be safer and easier to operate than their predecessors.

However, many concerns remain about the expansion of nuclear power in Asia and elsewhere.

Power and research reactors produce spent fuel that can be reprocessed into weapons-grade plutonium.

This is what North Korea did to make enough material for several nuclear explosive devices, one of which it detonated underground last October.

Nuclear reactors also produce waste that can be dangerously radioactive for thousands of years. The safety and security of nuclear plants is critically important, not least because they may become terrorist targets.

With such concerns in mind, the presidents of Russia and the United States - the world's two leading nuclear weapon states - earlier this month announced a framework agreement to expand the use of nuclear energy under arrangements designed to minimise the risk of proliferation.

They said both nations were prepared to work with other countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - the United Nations nuclear watchdog - to develop and apply a series of measures.

Russia and the US, along with the IAEA, are keen to persuade aspiring users of nuclear power reactors not to follow North Korea in reprocessing spent fuel, or Iran in enriching uranium.

The latter can be used to make material for nuclear bombs as well as fuel for power reactors that generate electricity.

Moscow and Washington have offered instead to support reliable nuclear fuel services so that in future countries will not need to develop their own enrichment and reprocessing industries.

In May, Russia and Kazakhstan - which between them have the world's largest uranium ore reserves and enrichment facilities - announced that they would open an international fuel cycle centre in 2013.

IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei says that if the international community fails to control the nuclear fuel cycle, it could be the Achilles heel of the nuclear non-proliferation regime.

He told a conference in May on the prevention of nuclear catastrophe that the ultimate goal should be to bring all fuel service operations under multinational control.

Michael Richardson is a security specialist at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore ([email protected])

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