Nuclear restraint
France this week echoed warnings over Iran's nuclear programme, voiced earlier by Israel and the United States. Tehran might face military action by concerned states, said Paris, unless it heeded UN Security Council resolutions calling for the suspension of its uranium-enrichment programme and other sensitive nuclear processes.
The stakes in this impending showdown could hardly be higher. Iran recently claimed it had started enriching uranium on an industrial scale, meaning it can produce fuel for nuclear power generators or material for atomic warheads. Tehran insists its intent is peaceful. But many countries, including the major powers, suspect it wants to develop nuclear weapons.
On Sunday, the same day that France issued its warning, the world's five leading makers of fuel for nuclear reactors - China, France, Japan, Russia and the US - met with other concerned countries to enlarge a group they formed last year, the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog, welcomed GNEP's expansion to 16 members as 'a major initiative that is badly needed, therefore very timely'. The IAEA is promoting a multilateral fuel-supply system that would spare many nations the need to produce their own nuclear fuel.
GNEP plans to develop new spent-fuel reprocessing technologies that produce non-weapons-grade plutonium, and advanced power reactors to use this fuel. But that will take time. In the meantime, it's a voluntary group seeking to set guidelines for the global nuclear trade.
The US caused concern among even some of its allies, like Canada and Australia, when it proposed GNEP. They feared that its rules might conflict with their interests. Canada and Australia are the world's top exporters of uranium. With Iran clearly in mind, US President George W. Bush proposed in 2004 that nuclear suppliers should refuse to sell uranium-enrichment or reprocessing equipment to any state that did not already have full-scale, functioning enrichment or reprocessing plants.
Eight countries have notified the IAEA that they reserve the right to develop all or part of the nuclear-fuel cycle for peaceful purposes in future. Of that group, Argentina, Brazil, Canada and South Africa remain on the GNEP sidelines, watching to see how it evolves. Other major players in the nuclear industry are adopting a similar position, as are a sizeable group of countries that plans to introduce nuclear power.
This division is dangerous. It could jeopardise IAEA proposals for a multilateral fuel system - a major blow to curbing the spread of nuclear weapons. It will also make it even more difficult to persuade Iran to give up its enrichment programme.
Michael Richardson is a security specialist at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. This is a personal comment
