Clinging to power
If Pakistan's president and army chief, General Pervez Musharraf, had even the teeniest modicum of a survival instinct, he would get far, far away from the country's politics. Instead, his greed for power knows no bounds. Even with his hold slipping away day by day, he wants to remain in charge. General Musharraf's wish would come true if he had powerful backers like those who helped him overthrow prime minister Nawaz Sharif in 1999. Alas, Pakistan is not the same nation that it was then, and the dictator's support has gradually melted away to the point that he is now clinging to office by his fingertips.
Sharif summed up the situation in May as he prepared to return from exile to stand in elections. Calling General Musharraf 'a gone man', he said the leader's 'options are totally exhausted, and starting from today [his fall] is simply a matter of time'. Since Sharif's planned triumphant return last week ended with him back in exile, in Saudi Arabia, such words would seem ill-judged rather than prophetic. But while his political comeback was nipped in the bud, the attempt has three clear implications.
First, General Musharraf has been shown up for what he really is: a dictator who cares nothing for the democracy that he claims he wants to restore. The Supreme Court had ruled that Sharif was not legally barred from returning to the nation: by ignoring its decision, the general showed he had no respect for the document on which he aims to hang his democratic credentials - the constitution.
Second, there was the strong show of support in Pakistan for Sharif; tens of thousands massed on the streets to welcome him back. These are people General Musharraf cannot possibly hope to count on for support.
Finally, the episode spurred the bid by yet another former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, to return from exile and resume office. A power-sharing deal she had been negotiating with the president has collapsed, and she said this week that she would return on October 18.
General Musharraf is certain to remain president given that he holds the cards needed for re-election. Parliament is stacked in his favour and, as a date has been set for the presidential election - October 6 - he has the upper hand, in terms of both time and strategy, over potential opponents. It seems doubtful that he will remain army chief: he is trying to cut a deal with the Supreme Court, which will rule soon on the legality of the matter. But how long he could remain president after parliamentary elections is up to those sectors of Pakistani society that he has alienated and the US officials who back his regime.
Top judges and the legal fraternity do not like him after he attempted to sack the chief justice. The powerful Inter Services Intelligence Agency, which helped Mr Sharif to his first term as prime minister in 1990, is also presumably not a fan.
Nor are the Muslim fundamentalists who support Mr Sharif. They are waging war on the general over his ordered storming of a radical mosque in Islamabad in July, and battles with the army in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. The military top brass are unlikely to fully back such campaigns, which are the result of pressure from Washington and its war on terrorism.
US officials have been stepping up criticism of the general's perceived lack of dedication to capturing al-Qaeda terrorists and Taleban fundamentalists, reportedly hiding in Pakistani territory.
As if that list of opponents were not enough, a survey released this week by the US-based International Republican Institute showed that Pakistanis in general were not so crazy about the leader. Sixty-two per cent thought he should quit as army chief while 64 per cent opposed his re-election as president. Seventy-eight per cent supported the return of exiled leaders to take part in general elections.
General Musharraf is clearly a man eager for a legacy. He still has one - a period of economic growth after the corruption of the Bhutto and Sharif years. He now faces a simple decision: stay in power and go down in history as a tyrant, or retire to his rural retreat and - by letting democracy take root of its own accord - become a statesman.
General, it's time to show your stripes.
Peter Kammerer is the Post's foreign editor
