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Taipei's stance defies the rules of logic

Tomorrow is the Double Tenth Festival - the 10th day of the 10th month - which traditionally marks the overthrow of the Qing dynasty in 1911 and the birth of the Republic of China. But, for the first time since the Republic of China government moved to Taiwan in 1949, the tower at the Presidential Office in Taipei is not displaying the 'Republic of China' name in festive banners.

Instead, they have been replaced with banners that read: 'Taiwan's entry into the United Nations'. The new message has been hanging on the front of the building since last month, and the Democratic Progressive Party government of President Chen Shui-bian refuses to revert to tradition.

There is no possibility that Taiwan can enter the UN, as both Washington and Beijing have said. Yet the DPP government insists on holding a referendum on the issue on March 22 - the day of the presidential election - primarily to drum up support for its candidate, Frank Hsieh Chang-ting.

Beijing has warned that this has created a 'highly dangerous' situation. But Mr Chen and his associates evidently believe that strengthening their candidate's chance of winning is more important than the safety and security of Taiwan's 23 million people.

The decision not to display festive slogans on National Day underlines the pro- independence position of the current government. It shuns any association with the 'Republic of China' - even though that is how it is known to its few remaining diplomatic allies.

It is unprecedented for a government to turn its back on its own flag, anthem and national day in this fashion. The administration wants to change all the trappings of the state, replacing them with ones that have no link with mainland China. Thus, at DPP rallies, displaying the Republic of China flag is considered provocative because it is associated not with the DPP but with the opposition Kuomintang. The president is photographed with the national flag only on formal occasions, when it is unavoidable.

On September 30, the DPP passed a resolution calling for a referendum on Taiwan's sovereignty and the enactment of a new constitution. Beijing immediately condemned the move.

For many years, the government of Taiwan has enjoyed de facto independence while continuing to be known as the Republic of China. Now, the DPP is burning its bridges and insisting on being known as Taiwan, and nothing else.

This is an extremely dangerous game because it seeks to do away with any ambiguity regarding Taiwan's past, present and future. Mr Chen and his party are staking everything on the success of their pro-independence cause. But their position is logically untenable.

On the one hand, they denounced Beijing's passage of the 2005 Anti-Secession Law, which gave the mainland the legal right to use military force if Taiwan moved towards independence. Mr Chen responded by saying the law's passage 'will pose the greatest threat to regional stability and world peace'.

On the other hand, the Chen administration is confident that Beijing will never attack, regardless of Taiwan's provocations. Thus, Mr Chen told The Wall Street Journal last month that 'time has proven that the United States' concerns about, and criticism of, our actions were all unwarranted. Nothing happened.'

Similarly, he said, he can assure Washington that 'nothing is going to happen' after a referendum on joining the UN.

So, Beijing is both a threat to regional and world peace - and yet it will do nothing about Taiwan's provocations. The two positions are not consistent.

Either the Anti-Secession Law is not a threat to peace, or Mr Chen's actions are likely to trigger a military response from Beijing. He can't have it both ways.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator

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