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A handful of stock investing prescriptions for Dr Wise

Dr Wise today reminds investors to take into account their ability to withstand losses as well as the desire to make gains before investing, especially in a volatile market.

News release, October 31

Securities and Futures Commission

Let's pretend that the writer of 'Dr Wise', a monthly column on the SFC's website, actually has experience of investing in the stock market.

I use the word 'pretend' deliberately. I think it highly unlikely that he really does have investment experience. Nonetheless, he regularly offers investment advice on the SFC's behalf and I suppose we must therefore do him the courtesy of assuming that he does know a little whereof he speaks.

Let's put this theory to the test by examining in closer detail what the latest news release on his column tells us of his thoughts. I assume, of course, that he also wrote the news release. The notion that two people in the SFC might have experience of markets would clearly be stretching credibility too far. Here we go:

'Before making any investment decisions, new and the more experienced investors are reminded to consider the investment basics ...'

Can anyone tell me who is left out after we have taken in both new and more experienced investors? I take it that Dr Wise meant 'all' investors but suffered from a common failing in journalism - more space to fill than thoughts to fill it with. The solution is to use more words. I can do it too. Do you see how it's done?

'... such as knowing what they are buying ...'

Stocks, I imagine, dear doctor. The bond market has also been showing some volatility recently but we don't have much of a bond market. And in stocks, what most people are buying are stocks that they think will go up.

Now, they may be wrong about whether those stocks will go up or not. The stocks may go down. They often do. But who is to say with greater authority before the event that those stocks will go either up or down?

If you, Dr Wise, are possessed of greater certainty about it than the ordinary investor, why are you slaving behind a desk for the SFC instead of having retired long ago on stock market winnings of billions of dollars?

'... understanding the risk ...'

You obviously don't understand risk yourself, Dr Wise. People these days spend billions on trying to understand risk, call in clever mathematics professors, write complicated computer programmes, and they're still stumped. Risk is something you can't understand. If you can understand it, it's not risk any longer.

'... knowing their ability and limits ...'

Well, if they don't know their ability and limits, what are you going to do about it? Will you introduce more rules that have the force of law but never passed a legislature? I'll tell you how you cure people from going beyond their ability and limits in stock markets. You let them lose their money. It's a superb teacher, the best there has ever been.

'... and setting clear investment objectives.'

Make money. Has there ever been another objective for investment. But, perhaps, by investment objectives, Dr Wise, you mean setting target prices for selling or buying stock and sticking to those targets. You would. Welcome to the losers' club.

'Investors should be extra cautious in a volatile market when quick profits seem to be gained easily but where quick losses are also possible.'

What an insight! I stand amazed! Here's a few more useful tips for you, Dr Wise. Water is wet and if you don't want to get wet, don't go swimming. Also, did you know that the sun, that big shining globe up in the air, rises in the east every morning? It does, honest. If you want to see it rise, get yourself a compass, draw a line from the centre through the point marked 'E' and you, too, can see the sunrise. That's in the morning, however. Don't try to do it evening. In the evening you want the point marked 'W'. Don't mention it, Doc. My pleasure. Any time.

'They should take into account their ability to withstand losses as well as the desire to make gains.'

Ditto. But, of course, Doc, they will have better prospect of gain than loss if they really know what they are doing, as you tell us they ought to know. Care to change your rules on inside information? What other sort of good information is there?

'Investors are reminded that Hong Kong is influenced by economic issues in other major markets, not just the Mainland, and it is important that investors take this into account.'

So we thought, did we, that you were giving us an investment lesson, Dr Wise?

Well, surprise, surprise, it was actually a geography lesson. There is more to the world than Hong Kong alone. There is even more than just the mainland. Didn't know that. Much obliged, Sir.

Oh, by the way, got any hot tips?

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