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Pan-democrats left to pick up the pieces for Legco poll

DAB chief confident district boost will have a positive effect

The results of the district council elections have given pan-democrats plenty of food for thought about their strategy for next year's Legislative Council poll.

Democratic Party chairman Albert Ho Chun-yan said it was difficult to predict what effect the district elections would have on his party's performance in the Legco poll.

'We would have to reflect deeply and learn from the experience we got from this time,' Mr Ho said.

While conventional wisdom and history suggest the democrats should win 60 per cent of the vote and Beijing-friendly candidates 40 per cent, as was the case in the 2000 and 2004 Legco elections, the reality on Sunday was very different.

However, many observers consider it too early to tell whether the results have altered the balance of power.

The first test for that hypothesis will be the by-election in two weeks' time for the Legco seat on Hong Kong Island left vacant by the death of Ma Lik, the then chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong. The contest pits former security chief Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, who is backed by Beijing loyalists, against the pan-democrats' Anson Chan Fang On-sang, a former chief secretary, and six other candidates.

On Sunday, the Civic Party won 6.2 per cent of the votes cast on Hong Kong Island, the Democratic Party 16.5 per cent and nominally democratic candidates without party affiliation 7.1 per cent, for a total of 29.8 per cent.

The DAB received 24 per cent of the votes on Hong Kong Island and the Liberal Party 3.2 per cent. Candidates nominally unaffiliated but with a government-friendly stance won 10.3 per cent of the votes, giving pro-government candidates 37.5 per cent support on Hong Kong Island.

A source in Beijing said the results showed voters were backing rationality and stability over slogan-chanting. 'But we should not jump to the conclusion the results can serve as an indicator for the Legco by-election, as district council elections and Legco polls are different,' this source said.

While district councils talked about neighbourhood affairs and livelihood issues, more abstract topics such as political views and candidates' images were dominant in the Legco poll, the source said.

The DAB took 25.4 per cent of votes cast in the 18 districts on Sunday and the Democratic Party 15.1 per cent. The Civic Party, in its first elections, took 3.6 per cent.

Tam Yiu-chung, chairman of the DAB, was confident the victory would have a positive effect on the party's performance in next year's Legco poll.

'Performance in the districts has always been the area of priority for the DAB. Since we have a strength in this area, as seen by the results from the district council elections, I believe it will have a positive effect for the Legco election,' Mr Tam said.

Liberal Party chairman James Tien Pei-chun said although his party had lost a key constituency on The Peak to the Civic Party, this defeat did not represent a drop in support the party customarily enjoyed from the middle-class, business and professional sectors. He said the setback his party faced in the elections, where it lost three seats, might be due to the fact that it put more emphasis on legislative work than than livelihood issues in the districts.

But he said it was too early to predict what the district council polls would mean for the party in the Legco election.

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