Now look at the first chart. The red line reading off the left axis represents the A-share index for the Shanghai stock market and the bars reading off the right axis represent the value of trading in those A shares.

The value of trading peaked at the end of May, more than four months before the A-share index reached its record high in mid-October, and the turnover is now at only about one-third of May's levels.

That decline in turnover was even more precipitous in Shenzhen and looks particularly steep when set in the context of market size.

The second chart takes the combined value of A-share trading in Shanghai and Shenzhen and compares it with the combined A-share market capitalisation of the two markets. Trading on this measure is now only about one-sixth of what it was in May.

It is rare anywhere in the world to see this sort of decline in trading value in a market that continues to show strongly rising share prices. When it happens, it is usually a harbinger of a reversal in share-price movement.

This is most notable in technical (chartist) formations, such as the head and shoulders and the double top.

In both cases, a declining value of turnover in markets or individual stocks struggling to post new share-price highs is a good indicator that sentiment is changing and buyers may soon be scarce.

I am not going to make this an absolute forecast. I think technical analysis can provide corroborative evidence but is not a sufficient basis on its own for investment decisions. Keep it in mind, however.

This doesn't look good for mainland stocks.

'Lee pushes back bullish target to early next year'

SCMP headline, November 19

Talking about not looking good, the supposed Warren Buffett of the Hong Kong market, developer Lee Shau-kee, has pushed back his 33,000-point target for the Hang Seng Index from the end of next month to several months after the Lunar New Year.

He also turns out to be one of those people who are very good at telling you that water is wet and that bears sleep in the woods: 'Investors should be careful in trading because the market is very volatile and the central government may issue more macroeconomic measures.'

Oh, really? Thank you ever so much, Sir. That was a revelation indeed.

But now take Warren Buffett, a man who lives by analysing corporate accounts as his countrymen live by eating burgers and fries, who says that his favourite holding period is forever, and imagine him making short-term index bets on the basis of whether retail speculators will or will not move into the market.

It just cannot be done, simply cannot.

'Global brand brings Italian flair to Hong Kong's high street.'

Government press release, November 20

Another triumph for InvestHK. Stefanel, an Italian fashion retailer that 'delights in Hong Kong's vibrant energy and excellent branding opportunities', is to open a 'flagship store' in Hong Kong after setting up its new regional headquarters here.

Wowee! Hip, hip hooray! They sure know how to lay it on thick at InvestHK, don't they? I have two questions, however.

Question 1. How many new jobs will this produce? It doesn't really matter as our jobless rate is now down to 3.9 per cent and really cannot go much lower, but it would be nice to know anyway.

Question 2. How many square feet of deck area will this new 'flagship' shop boast? And, by the way, are there are any ordinary ships to follow the flagship, or do we again have a navy of one solitary boat?