He avoided credit exposure at end of last year because he envisaged no real additional value to his investment holdings. He feels the same way about long-term government bonds.

'I am not sure if they will rise or fall. But for what they are providing in the way of returns I regard them as offering little value,' says Mr Monson, who was educated at Eton College and Oxford University, and counts classical music, economic history and country pursuits among his hobbies.

He believes that traditional investment techniques, applied in a modern way, is the best way of structuring a long-term 'natural' mix portfolio, which can be constructed from a diverse range of traditional asset classes, equities, bonds and cash, and some of the newer asset classes, such as global real estate, quasi-public sector bonds and alternative assets.

'I approach investment issues with three clear principles in mind. I believe that asset allocation is the key to a balanced investment policy. I also believe that recurring income with a sustainable yield is the most important source of long-term investment return from all asset classes. I also believe that equity investment is best approached on an increasingly global basis,' says Mr Monson, who regularly appears on CNBC and Bloomberg and visits Hong Kong to take part in the 'Brains Trust', organised by The Fry Group, as part of a panel of financial experts that provides investment views.

'I hope that people who follow my advice benefit from my consistent track record.' Over the past three years, his long-only global equity fund, Sarasin EquiSar - Global, has returned 63.1 per cent compared with a rise in the MSCI World TR (Total Return) index of 45.7 per cent.

In addition to investing on a theme basis, Britain-based Mr Monson also likes to examine market anomalies that affect financial indexes, such as the popularity ratings of United States presidents, the construction of tall buildings and even examples from classic books such as Jane Austen's 19th century novel Pride and Prejudice, to explain his economic theories.

For instance, tall buildings are generally constructed during periods of upswing, take time to build and are completed just as a market tops out or delivers a sharp correction.

He says the same principles can be traced back throughout history for thousands of years.

Mr Monson believes containers full of high-value products leaving Long Beach Port on the US west coast bound for Asia is an indication that the US high-end manufacturing industry is enjoying resurgence.

'Something is really happening with the US export engine, fuelled by a weaker economy, weaker dollar, which indicates to me a revitalisation of US intellectual property and innovative capital,' he says.

Full containers leaving Long Beach Port are up 27 per cent compared with last year, the best performance since 2002.

Looking at global trends, Mr Monson says investors will need to learn to live with the occasional fluctuation in the global markets.

'The latest volatility surge is the third event of its kind and was relatively unexpected and, like the previous events, was linked to a country rather than any specific global economic event.' Ironically, jitters caused by the impact of the subprime fallout had produced desirable consequences, such as reducing the US real estate bubble and triggering a surge in US exports.

He also believes that liquidity surges are a problem for the financial world rather than the real world where most investors are positioned.

'Investors with a long-term perspective could do a lot worse than invest in the markets when others are selling,' says Mr Monson who, for the first time in several years, is targeting US large cap stocks, particularly technology.

'Large caps and super-caps are now leading the way. There is going to be a blue-chip rally.'

He says the best opportunities can be found in the Dow and the large cap global exporters sector.

'I think that investors have never had a better opportunity to buy quality on the cheap. After years of conventional market wisdom being turned on its head, markets are set to return to how they should be. I may be a little early with my predictions, however, I believe we could see a significant unwinding of all the stock market anomalies we have been seeing.

'Small caps have been more expensive than large caps and emerging markets more expensive than developed markets,' says Mr Monson, who has his lowest emerging market weighting and highest US weighting in five years.

Remaining committed to a pro-equity investment bias Mr Monson, with one stark exception, broadly prefers growth over value stocks to protect against a global slowdown. His exception includes security of supply stocks, which are operating in markets where they hold strategic advantages over the commodities they are selling. This includes farming and agriculture, key metals and mining stocks, infrastructure, ports, dredging equipment and energy generating companies.

Mr Monson is nervous about the Asia markets where he sees increasingly stronger currencies and rising interest rates prompting governments to seek ways to control liquid inflation rates. 'In this environment - against a lower value US dollar - Asian exporters could feel the pinch.' Mr Monson suggests the prudent long-term Asian investor can benefit from focusing on nominal assets such as cash and short-dated bonds and place more emphasis on equities assets in the western markets, particularly in large cap companies.

'This could be structured around a basket of Asian currencies, while seeking better returns from western large caps than the regional markets.'

Mr Monson says he has thought about swapping his job to run a winery in Italy but will miss the thrill of the financial markets.