Judging by the hysterical note to much of the commentary last month when the price of oil came within a whisker of US$100 a barrel, you could be forgiven for thinking civilisation as we know it would be in danger of collapse if ever the crude price reaches three figures.
Happily, there is no need to worry. The models used to gauge the economic impact of a rising oil price are deeply flawed.
Back in April 2005, the Asian Development Bank forecast that every US$10 increase in the price of a barrel of crude oil would knock 0.8 of a percentage point off regional economic growth.
Just think about that for a moment. In making its projection, the ADB assumed an average price of US$41 per barrel for 2005. Yesterday, oil was trading at US$88 a barrel, having retreated from a record high of US$98 late last month.
So oil costs nearly US$50 more than the ADB assumed in 2005 and yet the bank is forecasting that emerging Asian economies will grow at a blistering 8.3 per cent pace this year.
That would mean, according to the ADB's rule of thumb, that if the price of oil had not risen over the past 2 ? years, Asia's economic growth rate this year would be a shade over 12 per cent. The mainland would be growing at a 15 per cent pace.
To put it another way, when the ADB made its 2005 forecast, it expected a 6.5 per cent regional growth rate. Factoring in the oil price rise we have seen since then, that would mean Asia should expand just 1.8 per cent this year rather than the 8.3 per cent the bank is now forecasting.