Will Hong Kong still make it if it doesn't build a third runway at Chek Lap Kok? Is Hong Kong losing its importance as a media centre to Beijing and Shanghai? These are the kind of issues that are often reduced to a 'yes-or-no' context when, in fact, they are worth examining in greater depth.
In the case of building a third runway, the supposed price of non-action is that Hong Kong will lose its position as the most important airport hub in this part of the world, and we are told that Guangzhou will take the position away from us.
A bit of quick research shows that Heathrow, London's main airport, has only two runways, but it handles about one-third more passenger traffic than Hong Kong. They achieve this by handling most of London's long-haul, high-income flights. Meanwhile, almost 60 million other passengers, mainly on short-haul, budget or charter flights, travel through the region's two single-runway airports, Gatwick and Stansted.
The Hong Kong mindset is that we should have all flights coming through Chek Lap Kok. Flights that use Shenzhen, Zhuhai or Macau airports are not regarded in the same light as London can view Gatwick, for example. Somehow, the 'one country, two systems' mindset creates zero-sum perspectives. Within that perspective, a third runway is the answer; eventually, a fourth runway would be a success, too. Alternatively, the right answer is to build a third runway and collaborate with neighbouring airports as well, with emphasis on building the runway.
It would be heartening if we could have this discussion about airports from a regional perspective. There are five airports in the Pearl River Delta, including Chek Lap Kok. Although Hong Kong, Macau and the mainland have independent aviation regimes, this is a relatively small space in geographical terms. However, it is the most important economic region in China and is likely to remain so for some time.
This area is already feeling the pressure from rapid growth through a degraded environment, worsening pollution and the consequential decline in public health.