Rich dish of leftovers but Tsang shows no appetite for future
It was a casserole budget - a bit of this and a bit of that and a bit of something else all stirred up and presented as a daring new recipe when, really, it consisted of no more than what the cook had left in the fridge.
'Dare to hope,' said Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah in concluding this budget, but daring did not characterise his remarks. With a fiscal surplus above HK$100 billion a year and free fiscal savings of some HK$1 trillion, he passed up a chance to make his name.
Two sentences on old-age allowance reveal the flavour of his timidity - 'If the old-age allowance were increased to HK$1,000 for each eligible person, by 2033 expenditure would surge to HK$14 billion. In the long run, this measure would be unsustainable, and the expenditure involved would become a heavy burden on the community.'
Unsustainable? Heavy burden? It comes to less than 1 per cent of today's gross domestic product and this for a time when the problem of an ageing population will be at its worst. We could cover this expenditure 72 times from our free fiscal savings alone. One land auction of a good piece of property could yield HK$14 billion.
Mr Tsang was actually happy to spend this much money in one go. He earmarked HK$18 billion for a loosely defined Research Endowment Fund.
The difference, however, is that it will be a one-off grant. The old-age allowance would be a continuing annual expenditure. Would he dare to take on a commitment?
No, he would not. His handouts were all easily revoked one-off measures. This is what made it a casserole budget. It had no theme other than potluck, no flavour but caution. Nowhere was there a savour of strategic thinking, an aroma of real policy measure. Bring your own salt and pepper.
And while calling on us to 'be ready to face the present', there were instances of Mr Tsang himself refusing to do so. In speaking of health-care financing, for instance, he said: 'The government cannot increase public health-care expenditure indefinitely.'
Oh yes it can, sir, in fact, it will have to. We have an economy growing at more than 10 per cent in nominal terms, inflation is rising, the population is swiftly growing older, and the possible range and costs of medical treatments are soaring.
In one way, of course, this hesitant approach to budgeting was only to be expected. Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen stole all the thunder in October with a budget that masqueraded as a policy address and was heavily keyed to infrastructure spending.
It certainly gave the casserole budget a leftover taste. There was no room for a HK$14 billion expenditure on old-age allowance in 2033, but plenty of room for a doubling of infrastructure spending to almost HK$60 billion annually for the next five years. Nothing is to get in the way of pouring concrete.
