By the end of Frank Rijkaard's first season at the Nou Camp, in 2003-04, Barcelona were the form team in Spain, even though they had failed to catch Valencia in the title race. They confirmed their pre-eminence by winning the title in the next two seasons, compiling the two highest points totals since La Liga was reduced to 38 games, and capped that with victory over Arsenal in the 2006 Champions League final.

Barca lost their title last season in unfortunate circumstances, as they would have pipped Real Madrid if Spain had followed the commonly accepted method of separating teams on goal difference when they are level on points, but instead they lost on the Spanish rule that head-to-head results are counted before goal difference.

By then, Barca had been the best team in Spain for three and a half years - a remarkably long period of dominance in one of the big three European leagues. Yet there was steady decline during that period - from the start of 2004 to the end of that season, Barca averaged 2.29 points per game, which fell slightly to 2.21 during their first title-winning season under Rijkaard, then again to 2.16 when they retained the title. Last season they averaged exactly two points per game and this season it has fallen again to 1.88.

Almost all of the decline is attributable to worsening away form. Barca's points per game at the Nou Camp has varied only between a high of 2.6 and a low of 2.42 since the start of 2004 and is running at 2.5 this season, but in that period their points per game on the road has fallen from 2.0 to 1.25 this season.

Yet bad luck has played a significant part too, with injuries restricting Rijkaard's ability to play his preferred front three of Ronaldinho, Samuel Eto'o and Lionel Messi. When that trio has started together in La Liga, Barca have won 20 out of 27 and averaged 2.37 points per game, which would equate to a record-breaking 90 points over a full season.

Ronaldinho is unavailable against Manchester United, but Messi's recent return is a significant boost for Barcelona, assuming he is fully fit for this elite level of competition. With Eto'o and Messi together in the attack, Barcelona have won 25 out of 35 in La Liga and averaged 2.31 points per game.

With no decline in Barcelona's domestic home form, and a home record of won 14, drawn four and lost one in the Champions League under Rijkaard, they have a good chance to beat Manchester United in next week's first leg at the Nou Camp. That might prove necessary, given the doubts over Barca's away form. In the past 10 seasons the home team have a 50 per cent win rate in semi-final first legs, losing only three out of 20, and the home team have won 62 per cent of quarter-finals or semi-finals when both teams have come from the powerhouse leagues of England, Spain and Italy.

That record also holds true for Liverpool in their home first leg in the other semi-final against Chelsea.

The Anfield factor will aid Liverpool, who have won 15 out of 21 at home in the Champions League under Rafael Benitez.

With Barcelona and Liverpool available at much better than even-money for next week's home legs, that is where the value lies, though it is worth considering under 2.5 goals on the HiLo. Thirteen of the past 20 semi-final first legs have had under 2.5 goals.

A fallacy about the Champions League is that playing away first is an advantage. In the past 10 seasons, semi-final winners were split evenly between those who played at home first and those who had the second leg at home, with similar figures for the quarter-finals. Almost certainly, therefore, there will be all to play for in the second legs, even if there are two home wins next week.

On this weekend's league programme, those keen to avoid teams with nothing to play for should be wary of relegated Colchester and Scunthorpe in the Championship and mid-table Huddersfield and Orient in League One.

The Liverpool team sheet also merits a close look for their visit to Fulham, as the Reds probably need only four points from their final four games to secure fourth place and Benitez is likely to rest key players. He did that at Fulham late last season, leaving out nine of the 10 outfield players that had started the Champions League semi-final four days earlier, and Liverpool lost 1-0.

That's entertainment

Total number of goals scored in six Champions League meetings between Liverpool and Chelsea: 3

Latics looking good

Wins out of nine at home against teams outside the top eight for Wigan, who should be safe if they beat Tottenham: 8

In select company

Home wins out of 21 for Carlisle, making them the second-best home team in England behind Premiership leaders Manchester United. You should back them to beat Southend tonight at Brunton Park: 17

Rocking Robins

Wins in their past 12 at home to teams outside the League One play-off places for Swindon, who should beat second-bottom Port Vale: 8

FORM FACT:

Manchester United, who visit Blackburn tonight, have failed to win (six) more often than they have won (five) away to teams outside the bottom six

Purple patch

Wins out of 14 in France's Ligue 1 in 2008 for Bordeaux, who rate a good chance at fifth-bottom Toulouse: 10

SHORTLIST:

Burnley, Wolves, Carlisle, Swindon, Nice, Rennes, Bordeaux.

BEST BETS:

$100 Carlisle (HW, Sat), Swindon (HW, Sat). Last week: three winning bets out of three.

FIXTURES:

TODAY

Arsenal v Reading

Blackburn v Manchester United

Fulham v Liverpool

Middlesbrough v Bolton

West Ham United v Derby County

Wigan Athletic v Tottenham Hotspur

TOMORROW

Aston Villa v Birmingham

Manchester City v Portsmouth

Newcastle v Sunderland