After the price of crude oil hit an all-time high of US$127.82 a barrel on Friday, it is worth taking another look at the dynamics of the market and wondering whether ever higher oil prices really are a forgone conclusion.
Certainly the prevailing view is that a barrel of oil is likely to get even more expensive in the short to medium term, and that it is sure to in the long run.
Last week, analysts at Goldman Sachs caused a stir when they predicted the price would average US$141 over the second half of the year, warning that it could climb as high as US$150 or even US$200 in a 'super spike' during the next couple of years.
Meanwhile, energy industry pundits are once again muttering darkly about 'peak oil', the idea that even as demand is rising, the world's oil production is inevitably sliding into irreversible decline.
But although the dominant view is that prices are heading higher, a minority of observers believe that more expensive oil is not such a sure thing.
One reason is that growth in developed world economies is slowing, with recession a possibility in the United States.
Most oil bulls point to rapid demand growth in the developing world, especially China and India, as the force pushing prices higher. But it is worth remembering that in 2006 the US consumed twice as much oil as China and India combined, while the developed countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as a whole burnt twice as much.