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Government's numbers game makes for interesting reading

HK is the mainland's third-largest export market

Ministry of Commerce

We featured this item yesterday but I take the view that when the male of the bovine species provides its posterior offerings in copious flow, it is best to cite the ultimate source.

Hong Kong is not actually the mainland's third-largest export market. According to the official figures from Beijing, we in fact come in on the No2 slot, second only to the United States.

We were No1 until 1998 but then the Americans started buying more from the mainland than we did.

There are slightly more of them than there are of us, you see, and each of them generally has more money. We couldn't stop ourselves from sliding into second place but we are still giving them a good run.

Don't believe me? Well, it's fact. You can look it up in the customs data.

You may also be interested to know that these mainland exports to Hong Kong amounted to HK$1.5 trillion over the past 12 months, the equivalent of 88 per cent of our gross domestic product.

We may be grateful indeed that these exports include some foodstuff, or else we would starve for lack of money left over to buy groceries from elsewhere. Fact.

And, from what we do have left over, 22 cents out of every dollar of GDP that we generate goes to the mainland as direct investment. Fact.

Ooops ... ahhh ... a bit of a computational malfunction, there it seems. Add 88 and 22 and you get 110. How is it possible that two items alone of mainland-related activity contribute more than 100 per cent of our GDP?

Could it be that almost all those exports from the mainland to Hong Kong never even touch the sides as they go right through Hong Kong to the US which is their real destination?

Could it be that all this direct investment on the mainland from Hong Kong actually comes from mainland sources, goes circuitously through various foreign laundry stops and then again never touches the sides as it goes via Hong Kong back to its mainland destinations.

No! Absolutely not! That sort of thing might constitute tax evasion and other forms of commercial crime on the mainland and we in Hong Kong will have nothing to do with this sort of dodgy business. Never!

Here is another gem for you from the Ministry of Commerce. As of the end of June the mainland had received 293,000 direct investment projects from Hong Kong. This comes out to one project for every 23 people in Hong Kong. Big projects these must be, humongous, gargantuan, colossal, words fail me.

But just to put a little touch of reality into the proceedings, our domestic exports to the mainland actually show a negative growth rate at the moment. Excluding goods sent there only for onward processing, they amount to about HK$1.8 billion a month, which is about 1.3 per cent of our GDP. That's the headline turnover figure. For their net contribution to GDP, go fetch a microscope.

And, because I just can't resist, here are a few more gems we cited from the hoopla surrounding the latest measures to supplement the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement with China.

Mainland-incorporated banks free to set up data centres in HK rather than on the mainland.

These banks are no longer restricted to locating their back offices in low-wage centres. They are now also entitled to locate them in a high-wage centre. They can come to Hong Kong and pay five times the going rate whenever they choose. What a breakthrough.

Organisations can operate welfare agencies for disabled in Guangdong.

We may provide charity payments to Guangdong whenever we choose in whatever size we choose. Guangdong has no objections to taking our money for social causes if we don't want the money back. One giant leap for mankind.

Increased drive for mutual recognition of qualifications in accounting and construction sectors.

Could someone explain to me, please, what this 'drive' was and how it has now been increased? If it means accepting Guangdong standards in Hong Kong for accountants and contractors, no thank you. If it means that Guangdong should adopt ours, well, so they should and eventually will. The next millennium will arrive in just eight years short of a thousand years.

Joint ventures in Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing and Zhejiang provinces to organise overseas exhibitions.

That's four out of 31 provinces signed up to take our money to help promote their wares abroad. I don't understand this. Here we are offering charity once more and we could only get four provinces to sign up.

But, out of kindness, let us not encourage the bureaucrats to go on a Cepa sales kick again. Their hands and shoulders would soon require medical attention with all the mutual back-slapping that this sort of thing requires.

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