Sneak peek at Legco winners
Lawmakers Choy So-yuk of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and Democrat Yeung Sum will lose their Hong Kong Island seats in next month's election, according to a poll co-sponsored by the South China Morning Post.
And independent democrat and unionist Lau Chin-shek will lose in the Kowloon West dogfight. His seat will be taken by the Civic Party's Claudia Mo Man-ching.
The survey by the University of Hong Kong's public opinion programme projected that Ms Choy's list, headed by Tsang Yok-sing, would receive only 13.1 per cent of the vote.
Under the proportional representation system, the first candidate on any list contesting the six-seat constituency must get 16.7 per cent of the vote to be assured of a win. The votes grabbed by the DAB ticket in the survey would only be enough to send Mr Tsang to the Legislative Council.
Other winners would be Tanya Chan of the Civic Party (with 30.5 per cent of the vote), Kam Nai-wai of the Democratic Party (13.3 per cent) and Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (25.9 per cent). The projections were based on the voting intentions of 202 respondents in the constituency. There were sampling errors up to 5 percentage points for some tickets.
The remaining two seats would go to Ms Chan's running mate, Audrey Eu Yuet-mee, and Louis Shih Tai-cho, who is second on Mrs Ip's list.
In Kowloon West, the poll found that only 8.2 per cent of the 173 prospective voters supported Mr Lau, not enough for him to keep his seat. The winning threshold in the five-seat constituency is 20 per cent.
Those set to win are Frederick Fung Kin-kee of the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (19.6 per cent), Democrat James To Kun-sun (19.2 per cent), Claudia Mo Man-ching of the Civic Party (17.5 per cent), Liberal Michael Tien Puk-sun (10.3 per cent), and Starry Lee Wai-king of the DAB (9.3 per cent).
In Kowloon East, Chan Yuen-han will not be returning to Legco as the 25 per cent support given to the Federation of Trade Unions candidates by the 168 prospective voters would ensure a seat only for the lead candidate on her list, Wong Kwok-kin.
Other winners are predicted to be Alan Leong Kah-kit of the Civic Party(28.3 per cent), Chan Kam-lam of the DAB (20.1 per cent), and Democrat Fred Li Wah-ming (16.3 per cent).
In the two most hotly contested, eight-seat constituencies of New Territories West and East, the existing political balance remains unchanged with incumbents all able to keep their seats, according to the poll.
Two functional constituency lawmakers switching to directly elected seats in New Territories West, Fernando Cheung Chiu-hung and Wong Kwok-hing, may fail to win a seat.
Gary Chan Hak-kan, second on the DAB's New Territories East list, will take the seat of Li Kwok-ying, who is not contesting the election.
The likely winners
HK Island Tanya Chan, Audrey Eu Yuet-mee, Kam Nai-wai, Tsang Yok-sing, Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, Louis Shih Tai-cho
Kowloon East Fred Li Wah-ming, Chan Kam-lam, Alan Leong Kah-kit, Wong Kwok-kin
Kowloon West Starry Lee Wai-king, James To Kun-sun, Frederick Fung Kin-kee, Claudia Mo Man-ching, Michael Tien Puk-sun
New Territories East Emily Lau Wai-hing, Ronny Tong Ka-wah, Andrew Cheng Kar-foo, James Tien Pei-chun, Leung Kwok-hung, Lau Kong-wah, Gary Chan Hak-kan
New Territories West: Selina Chow Liang Shuk-yee, Lee Cheuk-yan, Lee Wing-tat, Albert Ho Chun-yan, Albert Chan Wai-yip, Leung Yiu-chung; Tam Yiu-chung, Cheung Hok-ming