Trial and shaky coalition may stall comeback
The political comeback of Anwar Ibrahim, freed on bail after facing charges of sodomy, may not go the way he intended.
Some political analysts say that while Anwar can easily win the August 26 by-election in the family stronghold of Permatang Pauh, Penang state, his plans to become prime minister by Malaysia Day on September 16 appear unlikely to succeed.
His popularity, however, continues to grow as public opinion sways in his favour.
'Charge or no charge, he remains a formidable political force, one that policymakers cannot ignore,' said Denison Jaayasooria, political commentator and commissioner in the government-funded National Human Rights Council.
'However, what emerges during the trial and its final outcome would impact on his political status and plans. Even in the event he is convicted he would still be seen as a victim and can still influence public opinion, as he showed previously when jailed for six years.'
Nearly a thousand supporters crowded outside the courthouse in Kuala Lumpur yesterday to show their support for Anwar. He says the accusations are 'politically motivated lies' to derail his plans for becoming prime minister.
Though confident he will take power next month, Anwar faces some major political hurdles, according to some of his close supporters.
Anwar's People's Alliance coalition has 82 seats in the 222-seat Parliament and needs 30 government backbenchers to switch sides to form a new government.
'Lawmakers who had committed to switch sides will now hesitate because of the sodomy trial,' said an opposition lawmaker. 'At the very least they will wait to see the outcome of the trial.
'That means nobody is going to jump sides as planned.'
Anwar, who turns 61 on Sunday, could also face the pressure and stress of a long drawn-out trial that may see him unfit for leadership.
'The trial will keep Anwar, his political advisers and his legal team fully occupied for months, if not years,' said Ragu Kesavan, vice-chairman of the Malaysian Bar Council.
'But it is too early to say whether the preoccupation would be politically negative.
'My worry is whether the trial is fair and transparent. This is a major concern among human-rights lawyers.'
The success of Anwar's political ambition depends heavily on holding the disparate three-party People's Alliance coalition together to weather the turmoil ahead.
Dr Denison said one worry was the impact of the sodomy charge and trial on Parti Islam se-Malaysia, which although sitting in opposition was engaged in 'Malay unity' talks with the ruling United Malays National Organisation of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi.
'Their Islamic platform will make it difficult for them to come to terms with the sodomy charge and trial,' Dr Denison said.
'They are the weak spot in the opposition alliance and probably [will be] the first to snap.'
