Russia has made its point; now the need is for peace
Russia's move to recognise the independence of two breakaway regions in Georgia last week is a worrying development which has raised tensions in an unstable part of the world. Both countries have withdrawn diplomats. This is not going to help find a solution.
Moscow may well have been emboldened by the response from the west to its military intervention in South Ossetia. It has been condemned by the US and other Nato countries but has otherwise provoked neither a military nor economic response in the form of sanctions. However, last week's reaction from the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) - of which Russia is a key member - ought to put Moscow on notice that it needs to follow a less provocative path. Russia clearly wanted SCO endorsement of its actions in Georgia. Instead, led by China, the organisation sensibly called for restraint on all sides, refused to recognise the two regions' independence and reiterated the principle of territorial integrity.
Moscow's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia can be seen as a tit-for-tat move in response to the support from the US and European Union earlier this year for Kosovo's independence from Serbia. Russia opposed Kosovo's independence on the reasonable ground that the integrity of national borders is a key component of international stability. But the same principle applies to the breakaway regions in Georgia. Russia's military intervention may turn out to be a pyrrhic victory. The move has alarmed China and other member states of the SCO. Beijing has its own separatist movements in Xinjiang and Tibet to deal with, and the other SCO states are worried about a resurgent Russia. The Russian Federation itself has to deal with the restive republics of Ingushetia and Dagestan, which may one day want to go their own way. Then there is Chechnya, where Moscow has fought two brutal wars.
In one respect, Russia did score an important victory with the SCO; and the west, especially the US, should take note. The economic and security group's leaders endorsed Russia's 'active role' in the Caucasus 'in assisting in peace and co-operation in the region'. This is code for the member states recognising the legitimacy, or at least the necessity, of Russia re-engaging in an area that has traditionally been part of its sphere of influence. With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russian influence in the Caucasus and eastern Europe waned as the country was subsumed by political turmoil and came close to economic collapse. During this time, Nato and the EU offered membership to former Soviet republics and satellites - part of western efforts to spread democracy and freedom of trade and increase its own influence. Moscow, not unreasonably, sees this as encirclement.
Russia's intervention in Georgia is a brutal demonstration that the regional balance of power has changed with the former Soviet giant's economic resurgence and growing confidence. A new geopolitical reality has emerged, or rather the old one has returned. China and the SCO recognise that a frustrated resurgent power is a dangerous one; the west needs to recognise this, too. It does not necessarily mean a return to the cold war. Indeed, all sides have a vital interest in making sure that does not happen, including Russia. Moscow has made its point; the situation on the ground in Georgia is clearly in its favour. Russia should now recognise it limits and all sides must work for a regional settlement with Georgia and its western backers that will bring peace and stability to the region.
