Exit polls largely accurate despite fears about response rate
The main exit polls appear to have gauged support for many of the candidates accurately despite pollsters' concerns that a poor response rate could compromise their reliability.
Questions about exit polls caused some of the biggest controversies of a largely uneventful campaign.
Pan-democrats complained that their Beijing loyalist rivals might set up groups to conduct exit polls and use the results to adjust election strategy.
They reminded voters of their right to refuse exit pollsters information. Many voters seemed to heed the reminder, and some even said they had lied to pollsters.
The value of the exit polls, including the one by the University of Hong Kong's public opinion programme to help broadcasters shape their coverage on election night, was called into question.
Some candidates cited leaks of exit poll data when they issued 'situation critical' calls to bring out more of their voters.
Initial results, released yesterday, from two exit polls - by the HKU programme and Hong Kong Research Association - indicated a response rate of about 50 per cent.
The association said the 50 per cent level was barely acceptable to produce representative projections.
While its projections were largely reliable, its results indicated Audrey Eu Yuet-mee, who was second on the Civic Party ticket contesting the Hong Kong Island constituency, stood an 'extremely slim chance' of winning.
However, Ms Eu won, with her ticket taking 26.4 per cent of the votes cast by the 313,429 electors in the constituency.
In the New Territories West constituency, its poll gave Selina Chow Liang Shuk-yee of the Liberal Party and Fernando Cheung Chiu-hung of the Civic Party a 'relatively bigger chance' of winning. But Mrs Chow won only 5.4 per cent of the vote and Dr Cheung just 7 per cent. Both lost.
The association's data also gave James Tien Pei-chun, of the Liberal Party, a 'relatively bigger chance' of winning in New Territories East. He also lost.
The HKU public opinion programme's exit poll gave five of the six eventual winners in Hong Kong Island a very high chance of victory.
In New Territories East, it gave five of the seven eventual winners a very high chance and in New Territories West correctly predicted five of the eight winners.
Independent pollster Li Pang-kwong, of Lingnan University, who did not conduct exit polling on Sunday, believed the discrepancies were partly attributable to interviewees giving false answers.
'Many candidates also made so-called 'situation critical' calls citing exit polls to encourage more voters to vote for them. They often resorted to emotional words rather than precise figures,' said Dr Li.
'So the problem may be with the candidates, not the exit polls or those who conducted them.'
Ng Man-to, who was in charge of the Hong Kong Investigation and Research Centre's exit poll project, took a similar view.
He urged tighter guidelines on the citing of exit poll data to avoid possible abuse.
The Electoral Affairs Commission yesterday ruled 'unsubstantiated' a complaint that exit pollsters at a Yuen Long polling station had tried to mislead voters by claiming that the group they worked for had been commissioned by the government.
Complainant Zachary Wong said: 'The commission has not sent anyone to ask me. How could they have reached the conclusion? It will only encourage more malpractice if the commission fails to tackle it seriously.'
