United in adversity
The North Korean nuclear arms crisis, which has done so much to bring China and the United States together, may well take the bilateral relationship to a new level now that Pyongyang has proved reluctant to agree to a verification protocol amid rumours of the possible incapacitation of the country's leader, Kim Jong-il.
The 66-year-old Mr Kim has not been seen in public since mid-August and, when he missed ceremonies marking the 60th anniversary of North Korea on September 9, alarm bells rang.
US and South Korean intelligence reported that the North Korean leader had suffered a stroke. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak convened an emergency meeting to discuss the situation. Most recent reports indicate that Mr Kim was recuperating, with one South Korean official saying that the patient was well enough to brush his teeth.
The North Korean leader's illness could explain the lack of progress in attempts to get Pyongyang to agree to procedures for verifying the declaration that it has made on its nuclear programmes. Washington has refused to remove North Korea from its list of states that sponsor terrorism until an agreement is reached on a verification protocol.
The possibility of the incapacitation of the North Korean leader has spurred the South to take action to prepare for various eventualities, including the collapse of the regime and a huge influx of refugees. China, too, would view with grave concern a collapse of the regime, especially if South Korea then took over a reunified Korean Peninsula.
The US would be concerned not only with any setback to the timetable for the denuclearisation of the peninsula. It is even more anxious about the possibility of proliferation, with North Korean nuclear weapons or materials falling into the hands of terrorist groups. Given this situation, it would be natural if the countries most concerned with the fate of North Korea - which happen to be those involved in the six-party talks, got together to discuss possible co-ordination of their actions in the event of cataclysmic events in the North.
There are certainly signs of communication between the interested parties. A high-ranking South Korean security official has visited Washington for talks on security issues, including a military contingency plan in the event of a drastic change in the North. China and the US, too, are reported to be holding talks on North Korea. According to the ANI news service, a senior Bush administration official told Fox News that the US was engaging China about what to do if there should be instability in North Korea. The source said the Chinese were reluctant to admit the discussions publicly, because of their close relationship with North Korea.
Meanwhile, the US has welcomed North Korea's commitment to the six-party talks made by the country's second-ranking leader, Kim Yong-nam, who was quoted as saying that Pyongyang would 'continue to try to find a way' to break the deadlock over verification, which has resulted in Washington's failure to 'take us off the list of state sponsors of terrorism'.
The US seems prepared to make concessions in this area. Christopher Hill, assistant secretary of state for East Asia, said Washington was ready to be flexible about how to verify North Korea's declaration on its nuclear programmes. Thus, it is hoped that a compromise would soon be forthcoming.
In the meantime, the North Korean crisis seems to have brought together the other members of the six-party talks, especially South Korea, China and the US. This is important because, even if North Korea's 'Dear Leader' makes a full recovery this time around, the possibility of another stroke - and another crisis - cannot be ruled out.
What is needed is to turn North Korea into a more normal country, one that can take its place in the international community and one where there will be prescribed procedures for the top leader to be replaced if incapacitated.
Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator
