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Probability Theory
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Du Plessis looks value choice in Jockey Challenge

Jockey Challenge punters who backed Douglas Whyte on Sunday had to sweat through a countback before the favourite got the verdict over Alex Lai Hoi-wing, but it is hard to argue against throwing the winnings back on again tonight.

Whyte was posted the 2.6 favourite in the markets last night ahead of Mark du Plessis at 4 and Darren Beadman at 5, and odds makers don't look to have them surrounded.

Only Howard Cheng Yue-tin, who firmed immediately from 10 to 9, had support to beat the standout riders.

Du Plessis, with six well-drawn rides - which all look to have some winning claims headed by Caspar Fownes' Ocean Wide (race six) - does appear the obvious danger.

Beadman has five mounts, and Rewarding Star (race two) and Victory Conqueror (race six) will have to deal with wide gates.

Whyte has been the dominant Happy Valley rider, with only Brett Prebble, who is absent riding in the Melbourne Cup, giving him a run for his money.

The Durban Demon has a full book of eight rides and only Ganbaria (race one) and Industrial Express (race four) have drawn in the outside of the starting gates.

If he is able to work some Whyte magic on that pair to earn points, Whyte's supporters at the short odds should get home comfortably as well-fancied Clovis (race two), Big Kahuna (race three), Toy Story (race six), Hongkong Superstar (race seven) and Sight Winner (race eight) have drawn well enough to allow them their winning chances.

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