The big four in the English Premier League have all won on the same weekend only once in seven attempts this season, but there won't be a better chance of a four-timer than tonight when three of the four play bottom-half opposition and the toughest task on paper is Arsenal's home game against fifth-placed Aston Villa.
The longest-priced of the big four with the HKJC is Liverpool, who are first to kick off in tonight's early match at Bolton. Liverpool are 1.52, only slightly shorter than my estimate of their win chance. The HKJC odds equate to a 65 per cent win chance for Liverpool, while the odds for the other members of the big four indicate a 67 per cent win chance for Arsenal, 78 per cent for Chelsea at West Brom and 92 per cent for Manchester United at home to Stoke.
The only slight disagreement is that perhaps United's odds should be slightly longer and Chelsea's a little shorter. It is difficult to see United failing, though, as they have won six and drawn two of their eight games - including four out of five at home - against teams from outside the big four. Since the start of the 2006/07 season, United have won 20 out of 24 at Old Trafford against teams that finished in the bottom half of the table or are currently in that zone this season.
Stoke's only away points have come in goalless draws at Liverpool and Bolton, and they will find it difficult to shut out United, who have scored in 40 of their 43 home games since the start of the 2006/07 season. With Stoke posing little goal threat when they can't get far enough forward for Rory Delap to launch one of his trademark long throws, United should win comfortably, but there is little value in backing them even at -2 on the handicap as they have won only 14 of those 43 home games by more than two goals.
Chelsea go to West Brom on an incredible 20-match win streak away to promoted teams since the start of the 2002/03 season, including victories against both of the other newcomers already this season.
Those wins - 2-0 at Stoke and 3-0 at Hull - followed Chelsea's emerging trend under Luiz Felipe Scolari, who has made them a more potent attacking force without diminishing their customary defensive strength. As a result, Scolari's Chelsea are more likely to reward support on the handicap - eight of their 10 matches against non-big four teams this season have been won by two goals or more.
After a couple of less convincing performances early in the season (a 1-0 win at Wigan and a 1-1 home draw with Tottenham) Chelsea have won seven straight games against non-big four teams by at least a two-goal margin, with the last six accompanied by a clean sheet.