Pataca can defy threat of 'bounce factor' in Cup Trial
Surely only the great uncertainty of racing or the 'bounce factor' can beat the John Moore-trained Viva Pataca in the Cathay Pacific International Cup Trial (2,000m) after the star stayer's brilliant first-up win.
The six-year-old produced the best run of his career to take the Sha Tin Trophy over 1,600m, sprinting hard under 133 pounds to renew his claims as the best horse, and if he performs like that again, today's opposition won't beat him and he will really throw down the gauntlet to whatever comes to face him in the Hong Kong Cup next month.
If you need a good reason to avoid the short odds, Viva Pataca was reported having injured an elbow but was declared fit and well by the Jockey Club vets yesterday, so we have to assume all is well.
Last month, Viva Pataca (Darren Beadman) reeled off a final 400m sectional that would do credit to the best of sprinters, let alone coming as it did at the end of 1,600m.
No horse in this field is capable of doing what he did that day, so when we look for any vulnerability in Viva Pataca at what is going to be long odds-on, the only place to look is Viva Pataca himself.
In form theory, any horse coming off a peak will usually go only one of two ways - hold that form or 'bounce' and fail to reproduce it.
Having done it first-up when not expected to perform like that, the result would more often be a bounce than a 'hold', and Moore himself was surprised Viva Pataca had produced such a run first time out.
That would lead to the conclusion that he is a bounce candidate this time, but Moore has also been telling anyone who would listen for the past six weeks he believed Viva Pataca had returned better than ever, which might be an argument as to why he can hold that sort of form.
He has been in a similar position two seasons ago - running a controversial first-up fifth in the Sha Tin Trophy that had the stewards probing Eric Saint-Martin's handling of the horse. Next start in the Cup Trial, Viva Pataca was a well beaten third at odds-on in this race. That is the conundrum for punters wishing to take the short odds - a bounce might see him beaten and small fields can often produce surprises, but it would be a brave person who would declare it likely.
Weight students might dismiss the claims of Hawkes Bay (Felix Coetzee), given that he meets Viva Pataca a massive 13 pounds worse off for finishing fifth in the Sha Tin Trophy.
But David Hall's talented gelding was forced to race wide that day, dulling his finish, and Coetzee's rare ability to rate a horse going forward might suit Hawkes Bay today.
With the favourite's stablemate Viva Macau (Zac Purton) looking as likely a leader as any in a field devoid of established front runners, unless Douglas Whyte is keen to put Packing Winner into the role first-up, an even rather than fast tempo seems the best we can hope for. Hawkes Bay can land outside the leader and he is the only runner who has run a sectional in the past six months even in the same ball park as Viva Pataca's first-up effort.
Viva Pataca (below) came from the tail of the field in the Sha Tin Trophy with a blistering final 400m of: 21.42
