Change we needed, change we didn't want
To say that 2008 has been an eventful year is an understatement. Take the Hang Seng Index - still a good measure of the shape of the economy and of people's confidence. On Wednesday, it closed at 14,184 points; on Christmas Eve last year, the index stood at 28,128 points.
The state of the public finances has been as volatile as the 'passing clouds' to which Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen alluded when he was asked to comment in July about sharp falls in his popularity. Come February, a year after delivering a wealth-sharing budget thanks to a record fiscal surplus, Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah is expected to report a multibillion-dollar deficit.
In less than a year, the elite finance professionals who had become used to pocketing handsome gains from the market boom have been overcome by fears about pay cuts or job losses. Companies, with an eye to the grim economic outlook, are more concerned about their balance sheets in the near term than about their competitiveness and opportunities in the medium and long term.
The worldwide economic recession triggered by the meltdown on Wall Street has spread like an epidemic, ravaging economies in the final quarter of the year. Hong Kong has not escaped its impact. The chief executive and his team have given plenty of warnings that next year will be tough, and have urged their fellow city residents to believe that things will get better in 2010.
The truth is that, if developments this year are any guide, the pace of change in an economy so globalised could be so relentless as to be unimaginable.
Never before has the idea of change provoked so many emotions. On the one hand, the breathtaking changes in the global economy have left many bewildered, and doubting the relevance of the rules and principles that have prevailed until now. On the other hand, the mantra of change has inspired a flicker of hope in the United States, where the first African-American will ascend to the summit of power.
US president-elect Barack Obama inspired supporters with his promise of 'change we need', as well as repeating the phrase a predecessor, Franklin Roosevelt, uttered at the depths of the Great Depression: 'The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.'
In an interview with Time magazine, Mr Obama sought to define the change he had embraced and promised.
'It means a government that is not ideologically driven. It means a government that is competent. It means a government, most importantly, that is focused day in, day out on the needs and struggles, the hopes and dreams of ordinary people,' Mr Obama said.
To him, there is nothing to fear about change, because change means a return to normalcy, common sense and pragmatism in politics and in how Americans live.
Closer to home, the magnitude of the fluctuations in the stock and property markets and the downturn in economies here and elsewhere have caused panic. Panic begot fear, and that fear shattered confidence and self-belief.
Fearful of an upsurge in unemployment, the government has reacted with a massive job-creation programme. To ease the credit crunch facing banks, the government has stepped in with a multibillion-dollar loan-guarantee scheme for enterprises.
Alarmed by a marked drop in business in the second half of the year, some businesses have laid off staff in preparation for a long winter. As anxiety and gloom has mounted, consumer confidence has given way to uncertainty.
There is no denying that the current economic crisis could be the worst some people have ever seen.
Painful and unpalatable change appears inevitable, but there is a need to strike a balance between tackling short-term problems and preparing for challenges and opportunities in the long run.
