The English Premier League has returned to its traditional Christmas programme this season with most teams playing back-to-back games on December 26 and December 28, which is a rare test at the top level of how teams cope with a quick turnaround under intense pressure.
Nowadays it is unusual for the elite teams to be asked to turn out again within two days, but this weekend is different, as all 20 Premier League teams played on Friday and 16 of them are back in action today. All the teams that played at home on Friday are away today (or in the cases of Middlesbrough and Aston Villa, tomorrow and Tuesday respectively) and it might be expected that an away trip coming so quickly on the heels of Friday's games might be a disadvantage.
The statistics tell a slightly different story, based on Christmas games with a two-day turnaround in the past five seasons. The win rate for away teams in those games was 34 per cent higher than the 27 per cent league average over the whole of the past five seasons. Even though almost half of those wins were by big four teams, the away win rate for non-big four teams was 25 per cent, still above the equivalent league average of 21 per cent.
What is most interesting is that eight of the 11 away wins in the 32 Christmas games in the past five seasons were recorded by the big four or in derby matches, which indicates that a long trip is a disadvantage. That suggests Portsmouth (at Arsenal), Sunderland (at Everton), Tottenham (at West Brom) and Stoke (at West Ham) are the most vulnerable travellers.
The surprise team on that list are Tottenham, who are clear favourites to win at the league's bottom club and have performed like a top-five team since Harry Redknapp took over as manager. In that time Tottenham have had five wins, three draws and three defeats in the league - against teams in the bottom half of the table, Tottenham's record under Redknapp is three wins and one defeat in four games.
Tottenham, however, may well have to play to the best of their form under Redknapp to win at West Brom, who are yet to lose at home against a side outside the top seven. West Brom's home record against teams eighth or below is three wins and two draws from five games, and at the odds they rate the pick on the handicap.