Gathering storm
Today is the last day of 2008, a year of many ups and downs for Beijing, ranging from the Sichuan earthquake in May, when the world wept with China and offered help, to the Tibetan protests and subsequent crackdown, which gave China a black eye internationally. It was also the year of China's coming out party, in the form of the Beijing Olympics, when the country stunningly showed just how much progress it had made in the past 30 years.
And, after the Olympics ended, China wowed the world again with the launch of the Shenzhou VII space module, and the first spacewalk by a Chinese astronaut.
China, it was clear, had arrived in the front ranks of the world's nations not only in overall economic development but also in the realm of science. But the country's reputation suffered a grave setback with the revelation that greedy dairy companies had laced milk with melamine, a chemical that causes damage to kidneys, to make it look rich in protein. Hundreds of thousands of children became ill, and a few died.
The year ended, quite appropriately, with China's announcement that it would send naval vessels to join in the international fight against piracy near the Gulf of Aden, off the coast of Somalia - the first such venture in 600 years and proof positive that China was reclaiming its historic position not only in the region, but the world.
The Somali piracy crisis is a godsend to China, enabling its military to flex its muscle without appearing to be threatening. Instead, it simply seems to be responding to a call from the UN to safeguard peace and security in the sea lanes that are heavily used by Chinese and other shipping.
Tomorrow marks the beginning of 2009, a year of many anniversaries. January 1 marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the US and the People's Republic of China. The occasion is well worth celebrating, with many people now considering the Sino-American relationship the most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century.
The coming year will be full of challenges for China. The economic growth of the past several decades has been largely export-led. But, with its main customers the US, Japan and the 15-nation euro zone in recession, Beijing is hoping that domestic demand will make up for any slump overseas.
However, even in China, thousands of export-oriented factories are shutting down and millions of migrant workers from the countryside are unlikely to have jobs to return to after the Lunar New Year. By June, their ranks will be joined by millions of new college graduates in search of work.
Dissatisfaction is likely to rise and public unrest will increase. Inevitably, the government will be blamed and the authorities may resort to greater repression to keep the masses under control.
June 4 will mark the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square military crackdown, when hundreds, possibly thousands, of people were killed. The Communist Party will do everything to ensure that large-scale student demonstrations are not repeated.
The party is likely to use another anniversary, the 60th of the establishment of the People's Republic, on October 1, to imbue a greater sense of nationalism.
But 2009 also marks the 90th anniversary of the first Tiananmen Square demonstration of May 4, 1919, which triggered the May Fourth Movement. At the time, university students protested against the western powers' decision in Versailles to transfer defeated Germany's concessions in Shandong province to Japan, despite Chinese objections.
Participants in the May Fourth Movement, which led to the birth of the Communist Party in 1921, realised China's weakness vis-a-vis the west and called on the people to seek help from 'Mr Science' and 'Mr Democracy' to strengthen the nation.
Ninety years later, Mr Science is strongly entrenched in China. However, Mr Democracy remains out in the cold.
Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator
