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Indonesia leans to more of the same

Incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's dominance in the polls ahead of today's Indonesian presidential election reflects a hankering for stable, clean government, writes chief Asia correspondent Greg Torode

Jakarta's National Stadium was filled with all the trappings of US-style presidential razzamatazz when election front runner President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono staged his final rally.

Pop stars and comics warmed up a crowd estimated at 100,000, flanked by oversized national flags and machines pumping ticker tape into the air. A popular young crooner, delivering a particularly syrupy version of the national anthem, had the crowd on its feet: 'Indonesia the Great! Indonesia the Free!'

Dr Susilo was more than fashionably late. By the time he appeared on stage in the half-light of a polluted Jakarta afternoon, people were already leaving the top decks of the stadium. By the time he and his vice-presidential candidate, Boediono, finished speaking, the stadium was virtually empty apart from a loyal bunch on the grass in front of the cameras.

It was a telling symbol. Indonesia's young but maturing democracy, just like the policies of the man leading it, remains a work in progress and a triumph of low expectations.

Today, 170 million Indonesians are eligible to vote in an election that many inside and outside the country hope will further cement the nation's hard-won freedoms and stability. In a diverse Muslim-majority country that is the largest in Southeast Asia, it will be no mean feat.

A range of polls suggest Dr Susilo will win easily after the success of his first five-year term, becoming the first president to be democratically re-elected in Indonesian history.

A heavyset and risk-averse retired general, he has lumbered through a deliberately low-wattage race against former president Megawati Sukarnoputri and his own Vice-President Jusuf Kalla.

All three have been criticised for offering precious few policy specifics; stilted, polite televised debates were widely derided as snooze-fests.

But Dr Susilo appears to sense that many of his countrymen want stability and continuity - rather than controversy and fireworks - to further bed down democratic traditions after the bloodshed and civil wars of the recent past. Even his campaign slogan, Lanjutkan!, hardly quickens political pulses, translating roughly as 'More of the same!'.

'He's not an exciting man and far from a perfect leader, I must admit,' Jakarta architectural student Ali Sutanto said. 'But basically he's probably the most democratic among them ... and he's clean.'

In a nation once dominated by the kleptocratic Suharto clan, Dr Susilo's anti-corruption drive is popular and has so far proven capable of targeting business and political elites once considered untouchable.

Intensifying the campaign was a key plank of his reform-minded manifesto, which also included more action to implement his old promises of law reform, cutting regulation and red tape and raising troubled health care and education standards.

By part accident and design, Indonesia's still insular economy has ticked along despite the global recession, slowing to a still solid 4 per cent growth. This has allowed Dr Susilo and his team to offer emergency cash to more than 19 million families, but tens of millions more live on less than US$2 a day, making it one of the poorest countries in the region. Unemployment is above 8 per cent - still far beyond his earlier promises.

His administration's peace deal with the province of Aceh has helped the cause of domestic stability, but the long-neglected Papua region in the east remains restive.

To tackle these problems, Dr Susilo is promising a fresh cabinet of technocrats rather than politicians to drive pragmatic policy rather than ideology. His popular choice of Mr Boediono, a flexible central bank governor, is a sign of that.

Foreign investors, long fearful of terrorism and civil war, also like what they see. A report by investment bank Morgan Stanley captured the mood, suggesting Indonesia should strive to join Brazil, Russia, China and India as a major emerging economy.

'The 2009 election results suggest continued stability in this domestic political framework and is a critical factor in unleashing Indonesia's growth potential, in our view,' the report stated.

Both his rivals, however, brand the Susilo-Boediono ticket as 'neo-liberal' - a loaded phrase that suggests foreign business interests and other elites will benefit at the expense of the poor.

His main rival, Ms Megawati, is more outwardly nationalistic, harking back to the days of her late presidential father, independence hero Sukarno. She would build up the state to be a key agent of change and welfare, promoting economic self-sufficiency and opening up vast tracts of land to help poor farmers. She plans grass-roots subsidies rather than industrial-level assistance higher up the chain.

With a presidential style seen as vague and ephemeral, she has struggled to overturn Dr Susilo's solid lead, and many analysts predict he will garner more than 50 per cent of the votes to avoid a second round of voting in September.

Her running mate, retired general Prabowo Subianto, is even more outwardly nationalistic, promising to nationalise mining operations and drive out foreign investors.

Mr Kalla, a self-made millionaire businessman, has also played the economic nationalism card with pledges to create a stronger economy with mineral wealth as its base.

Seeking to emerge from the considerable shadow of his current boss, Mr Kalla and his running mate, former Suharto-era military chief Wiranto, have promised 'faster and better' decisions - seeking to capitalise on Dr Susilo's legendary caution - and economic growth faster than the 7 per cent offered by the incumbent. They have targeted another weakness, pledging to stimulate recovery with big infrastructure spending.

Widespread doubts about Mr Kalla's abilities to control deal-making by his family have not helped him forge a positive profile, however, and he is a distant third in most polls.

By tonight, expect to see the first indications of whether the hare of Mr Kalla's 'faster and better' platform is being trampled by the 'more of the same' tortoise of Dr Susilo.

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