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Lai See

IPO
Ben Kwok

Amber can take heart from trajectory of other hot stocks

The weather is hot, and so is Amber Energy.

The stock makes its debut in Hong Kong today after being 1,248 times oversubscribed by retail investors desperate to get a slice of the firm, the shares of which are expected to soar 30 per cent.

The company, which operates natural gas-fuelled power plants in Zhejiang province, has gone down in Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing's books as the fourth hottest stock ever, after Tianjin Port Development Holdings (1,703 times oversubscribed), China Green Holdings (1,603 times) and Beijing Enterprises Holdings (1,276 times).

But the big question is: How will Amber Energy perform in the longer term?

If we take out Beijing Enterprises, which tripled its offer price on its debut, we believed Amber Energy is very similar to Tianjin Port and China Green in terms of business concept (China play), size (small-cap) and pricing (HK$1.28 to HK$1.88).

If Amber follows in their footsteps, we could probably expect it to double in its first year and at least triple in the second year, approaching HK$10.

Tianjin Port went up five times (HK$9.42) within two and a half years of its listing at the humble price of HK$1.88 in 2006 and was still above water yesterday, closing at HK$3.15.

China Green has been even more impressive, going up as much as eight times to HK$10.64 from its offer price of HK$1.28 within four years of its debut at the start of 2004. It closed yesterday at HK$8.09.

However, it should be noted that both counters have been below their IPO prices - China Green hit bottom four months after its listing, while Tianjin Port became a penny stock for a time last October.

Yang back in car business

Fugitive mainland tycoon Yang Rong, the former chairman of Brilliance China Automotive, is said to be making a comeback to the industry in the United States.

The 53-year-old, who fled the country in 2002 after being accused of economic crimes, plans to start making environmentally friendly cars in Alabama, according to reports.

Yang (above) now lives in California and has already hired a former executive from General Motors for the green project, which could provide thousands of jobs in the troubled US industry.

Initially the cars will be made and sold in the US, but plans to expand to China may be on the horizon, though perhaps not until Beijing has resolved his case.

Fairwood lags fast-food rival

Not every fast-food chain can be like Cafe de Coral and keep turning in record years.

Rival Fairwood yesterday reported a 21 per cent drop in profit to HK$80 million. Its shares promptly fell 6.17 per cent to HK$7.30 after the results were announced.

In contrast, Cafe de Coral, which a day earlier reported 5 per cent profit growth to HK$442 million for last year, went up 3.21 per cent yesterday, closing at HK$16.08.

The franchises were created by the two Lo brothers, who also ran soya bean milk maker Viceroy International, but Cafe de Coral is now five times more profitable and about 10 times larger in terms of market capitalisation.

Over the past decade, analysts have consistently argued that the valuation premium of Cafe de Coral over Fairwood would narrow because both were in the same business.

But we have noted a big difference between the two. Fairwood has spent HK$32 million on share buybacks, most of them last year at a price of HK$7.60, higher than the current share price. Cafe de Coral has spent five times more on buybacks, but at an average price of only HK$3.20, or about a fifth of its current share price.

If there is any advice we can give Fairwood directors, it is this: Don't release your results in the same week as Cafe de Coral.

Hazards of overwork

Anyone who has ever suffered back pain will sympathise with Shui On Land chairman Vincent Lo Hong-sui, who was forced to stand rather than sit during most of yesterday's signing ceremony to mark the forming of a strategic partnership with Dutch retail property giant Redevco for a Wuhan development project.

The event was supposed to be held at his Shanghai headquarters but was switched to Hong Kong because the tycoon was in too much discomfort to fly.

His people said the back pain could be traced back to his early days setting up Shui On, when he worked for seven consecutive years without a holiday.

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