Ruling party faces disaster at the polls, analysts predict
Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso may have ended months of speculation by finally setting a date for the next general election, but there is little evidence to suggest that it will make any difference to the outcome.
By delaying the election until August 30, few believe he is doing anything more than putting off an inevitable disaster for his Liberal Democratic Party. Mr Aso may only have been in office for slightly over nine months, but his administration has been characterised by muddled policies, cabinet members who have come and gone with alarming speed and a failure to get to grips with the problems that face the country.
And given the opportunity to pass judgment on Mr Aso's Liberal Democratic Party in Sunday's election for the Tokyo municipal assembly, the public was not slow in coming forward.
The 38 seats that members of the LDP won was equal to its worst-ever showing in the capital and power has been well and truly transferred to the opposition, headed by the Democratic Party of Japan.
'I don't think 'debacle' is too strong a word,' said Steven Reed, a professor of politics at Chuo University.
'Looking at the figures, there is almost no way to imagine the LDP winning the election, particularly under Mr Aso, but the way the party has dealt with tricky situations like this in the past has been to wait as late as possible and hope that something happens,' he said. 'Sometimes it does, but it would have to be something monumental this time, I think.'
One possibility might be a rash move by North Korea that would inject a rush of support in favour of the hardline policies the LDP has in place towards Pyongyang, he added, but that would require an extraordinary amount of good fortune on the part of the LDP.
Other analysts echo the sentiment that it is no longer a case of whether the LDP can win the election, but more a question of how many seats Mr Aso's party is able to cling on to.
'He has completely outlived his usefulness to the LDP and his political capital at the moment is zero, if not negative,' said Noriko Hama, a professor at Kyoto's Doshisha University. 'The LDP does not seem to know how to react to the crisis that it is in and that has not been lost on the electorate,' she said. 'I expect this result will be repeated in the general election because the feeling amongst the voters is that this party is on the run and it needs to go.'
Opinion polls show that support for the cabinet stands at about 20 per cent, and Professor Reed believes the LDP will not see the resurgence of support it is hoping for. 'In the 2007 upper house elections, the DPJ managed to win the rural areas, which have always been a power base for the LDP,' he said.
'We are going to find out if that was a one-time event, but already we have seen some of the agricultural co-operatives ... coming out in support of the opposition party. For the LDP, this is exceedingly dangerous ... Clearly there are lots of people who see a sinking ship and are looking for another ship to get aboard.'
He predicts an extended spell in the wilderness for the LDP. Reforms that make it more in touch with the voters may, however, make it more electable.
